Ike's Storm Surge Charts

Here are two charts of water level in Galveston and Manchester Texas. As you can see, although the water level rose well before the storm, it did not go above 15 feet in these locations, which made a big difference in flooding. It was bad, but it could have been worse.

Give credit to the National Hurricane Center with a pretty good forecast track. The eye made landfall in Galveston at 2:10am local time. The path and position of the eye kept the worst storm surge just east of Houston. It could have been much worse if the eye had been 20-40 miles left (south west) of the actual track. As a result the winds in Houston were more from the east as opposed to the south. Now we wait for the full assessment in daylight. I would suggest there are devastating results in spots not covered yet...

Ike's Storm Surge Arrives Early

Click here to see the water charts for Galveston, TX. Water began flooding this parking lot and streets this morning. Landfall is expected after midnight- around High Tide.
track Ike in the Tropics Tab Above...

Ike Could Be Worse than Katrina

The slight shift in the track over the past 12 hours has put the direct target on Galveston and Houston, Texas.
There is agreement among most of the models on this path, which actually puts this metropolitan area closer to the path of the eye wall, which is where the strongest winds are found.
As of 5am, the winds increased slightly to 105mph. More important is that the hurricane force winds extend 120mph from the center. The tropical storm force wind field extends 450 miles from end to end. A large storm that will effect a large area.
This is going to be bad! There is no way to sugar coat this, and I do not think the hype is too much. The famous 1900 hurricane that killed 8,000 people prompted the building of a 17 foot sea wall in Galveston. It has yet to be challenged by a Hurricane. This storm should build a 15 foot storm surge with waves 32Ft tall as it makes landfall around high tide. Add in over 12 inches of rain and tornadoes on top of the max winds, and I have a hard time accepting that this storm will spare this metropolitan area.


The NFL made the move last night to postpone the Football game between the Ravens and Houston Texans has been postponed until Monday night. Is this a good move? Of course the game should not take place on Sunday, but what about the conditions of Houston on Monday. The damage to the infrastructure, plus the displacement of most of the population will make any travel difficult. Even if Reliant Stadium does survive better than the Superdome, and they have generator power- what about the rest of the region. While I have a fantasy football player in this game, I don't think this was thought out properly. Perhaps the game should have been moved to New Orlean's Superdome, or even one of the University stadiums inland. What do you think?

It should be noted that the National Weather Service put out a statement yesterday saying "People in the path of this storm will face imminent death". That is the same statement put out 1 day before Katrina hit New Orleans. At that time the storm was a Category 5. This storm is still a Category (as of early Friday). Here is the rest of the statement from the NWS for Galveston and Houston areas:

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

PERSONS SHOULD PREPARE THEIR PROPERTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
DAMAGING WINDS. SECURE OR REMOVE ANY LOOSE ITEMS SURROUNDING YOUR
PROPERTY WHICH COULD BE BLOWN AROUND BY TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. TRIM TREES NEAR YOUR PROPERTY.

MOST MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.
SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO
SHINGLES...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT.
UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME
AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS
OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT
ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS.

MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND
ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE LIVINGSTON TO HEMPSTEAD COMMUNITIES BEGINNING
8 TO 10 PM FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR
AN 16 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD. WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 80 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER AREA.

...INLAND FLOODING...

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HEAVY RAINS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

...TORNADOES...

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IKE SPREAD INLAND. BASED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL
BE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. YOU SHOULD PLAN TO SEEK
SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A Day of Silence, Questions about Ike

There is a lot I would like to talk about today:
The bee colony in the wall of my bathroom...
The rain on the way...
Hurricane Ike...

I just don't feel right posting on this somber day. Too many personal things that had happened on that dreaded 7 years ago.

Life does go on, and we can not let terrorists break out spirit.

We will be bombarded with images and memorials. It will be painful for many of us, but please
DON'T FORGET!

There will be a lot of anxiety about our next disaster- this one natural and forecast. Here are the computer models from Wednesday Night for Hurricane Ike. As of this morning, it was a large storm. Hurricane force winds extended 115 miles from the center. Tropical Storm force winds extended 230 miles away. The pressure indicated that the measured 100mph winds should be closer to 130mph+. It look like a contraction and speed increase is likely today. The track is scary. The latest trend has been to pull it farther up the Texas coast. The NHC path takes it just to the west of Galveston and Houston early (pre-dawn) Saturday morning. Football fans will be questioning what will happen to the Raven's vs. Texans

Turning Leaves, TRMM and Ike

I am personally excited about the temperatures cooling down. My pool is still opened, but there is a point when the heat just sucks the energy out of you. I am there! This is why I love a four seasons climate. Especially around these parts, when it is different every year. Consider last year, the leaves were still on the trees past Halloween into Thanksgiving. This year, there are already turning. I saw a stretch in I-83 yesterday with brilliant yellow and even red. I will take a photo today and post it tomorrow. With the pictures, it's just words here....

So let's push past the chill on the way, and jump back to the tropics with Ike. Here is the TRMM Satellite just before it hit Cuba. That is the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. This was Sunday with winds of 132mph.
The rainfall analysis shown on this image was made with data from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) instruments . They are overlaid on an image that used TRMM's Visible and infrared (VIRS) data.

This is one of the tools used to help determine how much rainfall has occurred with a land falling storm. This image shows that there was potential for well over 1 foot of rain, that passed over the southern Bahamas, and Haiti which has been hit by Fay, Gustav and Hanna.





Here is the 7 day total up through yesterday. It might be hard to see here, but TRMM shows the general range of 4 to 14 inches of rain in Cuba and Haiti. This is important to follow as Ike is likely to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico this week. The current track continues on the southern path and aiming for Corpus Christie, TX Friday night and Saturday morning. You can continue to track with StormPulse in my tropics page...