Front Crawls, We Get Healthy Rain

Rain For Some:
Like I mentioned yesterday:
In part thanks to Bertha near Bermuda and the traffic jam off of the coast, our cold front put on the brakes last night. Here you can see the Rainfall Totals ending at 5am. They ranged from about 1.5 inches in Carrol and Howard Counties to nearly nothing on the Eastern Shore.
With the front on the move, you can, you can track todays rainfall in Rock Hall at Belcak's weather station. Very Cool!




East Coast Traffic Jam
Here is the surface map and infrared satellite from this morning. There is High Pressure stuck between our front and TS Bertha. Regardless, it's all stuck. As Bertha begins to make the turn and move on it's way, we will get that front out of here. In the process, we hope for our clearing this afternoon. I have my own motive- a round of golf this afternoon. It's only my second round of the year, and my family at the beach, I need to get this in. I think it will work out, but that's here in Baltimore. Planning golf or a day at the pool on the Eastern Shore- uh, I don't think so. This front will be your headache in the afternoon.
We all get a break tomorrow, and a return of 90 degree heat for the second half of the week.
The tropics are looking a bit more active, with a few waves under scrutiny near the ITCZ. Below is the wide view. That Wave #1 has a high probability of becoming Cristobal.

Bertha Rips Coast- From a Distance

It's been nearly a week and a half, and Bertha has slowed to a crawl- on the other side of Bermuda. While it has turned to corner, and is expected to stay far out to sea, the waves have made their way to the east coast. Bertha had some help. Here you can see the clockwise wind around the Atlantic High Pressure, and eave the counter clockwise flow around a wave of Low Pressure that has formed along our old frontal boundary just off the coast. All has provided the push of waves and rip of the tide. Here you can read how the lifeguards on the Jersey shore had to stay alert all weekend.

The added humidity and the approaching cold front from the Ohio Valley will spark some strong thunderstorms later today. The Storm Prediction Center has the slight risk of Severe Storms (large hail and damaging wind) for the mountains just to our west. I have two concerns here for us locally:
1st: The wind direction. Much like yesterday, I expect a south to southeast flow. That southeast wind direction adds humidity off of the bay, and upslope for the metro area north and west of the beltway. That can enhance any showers that develop in the mountains. So while you may sometimes watch storms in the mountains tear apart or skip north of us, this is a situation where we will have to watch whatever develops potential reach us by this evening.
2nd: There is a bit of traffic off the coast to our east. That will likely slow the front down. While the models have it passing through Monday morning, it may linger and keep the chance around for my round of golf in the afternoon. It's only my second round this year, so I have an agenda. I'd like to clear us out completely, but Monday afternoon showers may redevelop near the bay and the eastern shore...

Hurricane Bertha: Not Big, but Strong

Overnight, Bertha jumped to a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Here is the latest image with stats and forecast. As you can see, the trend continues to push it farther east. Bermuda may escape this threat with just high surf.
One thing to note: Will this trend continue all season? I have noticed in seasons past, that the models (such as the GFDL) that the NHC uses to dominate it's forecast track can have a bias farther east or left of it's track.

Locally: We will have more heat and more storms. There was a flare up of showers in Virginia early this morning. This is in response to this upper level Low. This will slowly slide to the coast today, and help to develop more storms this afternoon. In the meantime, we will have more sunshine- boosting us into the 90s. That heat and this upper level support can make some storms push severe limits. That means:

• Large Hail (3/4 inch)
• Strong Winds (over60mph)
• Heavy Downpours

This does not guarantee it, and they will be isolated...but look out. It could get busy later on....

Maryland Swamp! Berthan Now a Hurricane

How about that rain? A burst of tropical rain moved through Baltimore and Harford Counties around 3 and 4 this morning. Some spots had over 1 inch of rain. Considering the rain over the weekend, and we are making up for the lack of wet weather in June.
Here is the projected rainfall for today. An average of 1/4 to 1/2 inch. However, local storms (like this morning) can easily dump over 1 inch.
This whole will take another two days to move off of the coast, and it will just be a waiting game. Watching the radar will determine when the showers pop up, and where they move. It's going to be some daytime heating that will provide the trigger.




HURRICANE BERTHA
This is the update from 5am. I've got more images on my old tropics page. Click the image for more. The track shows a typical curve before reaching the US coastline. This is in part due to our coastal front that will be on the move and help steer this storm. Bermuda may be under the gun, but there is a wide range of error at day 5. It will be interesting to compare the actual track to this forecast on Friday.