1 Degree of Sanity

So last night ended up to be a whole lot of nothing. Well, rain- since temperatures stayed at 33F at BWI and most of central MD. So much for that snow burst in the afternoon and Advisory. I don't make the Advisories, nor does any other TV weather guy. That is a government issue from NWS. All I can do is pass it along, even though I did not expect it. Sort of like my findings of this web image on Internet Explorer. I just found out the IE6 does not support my programs CSS files. Please try the browser link in the upper right to see what I mean...
The worst thing about snow- when it melts. A lot of that today around here. Tonight it's more of the same- rain or freezing rain. This next wave is going to be a matter of not temperature degrees, but degrees of latitude. Here are the GFS maps for Monday, since it did the best job last week with the snow on the 5th. Where does the front set up? On the left is the surface map and 12 hour precipitation. On the right is the 850mb temperature map. This level is roughly 1500m or 4,500 ft above the ground - but changes all of the time. This level helps us with ice events as well as expected temperature down at ground level. You can see I've circled the 10C in yellow, which would put us in the 60s, but the 0C in light blue is in northern PA. A sharp contrast in a close area. I still expect rain, but there will be a range of temps close to 40F or 60F depending on how far north the front can get. The atmospheric tendency has been to verify a little farther south that model predictions. That would eliminate the the GFS aiming for 60F on Monday. Although I would feel safe in the low 50s. The one caveat, if we get sun after morning rain, or the wave in OH gets stronger. That would lift the front north and would increase our likelihood of jumping on the heat bandwagon. I'm taking the rest of the weekend to watch my snow melt. It may be another two weeks until we can get more.

Every End is a New Beginning

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PA issued around Noon for SUNDAY MORNING. I'll post tonight if MD gets on board.
Today is the end of a few things... First November 30th marks the end of Hurricane Season. A season that has been marred with ridicule. First the new director of the Hurricane Center had to resign after criticizing the lack of funding for old satellites. The expected active season was a dud. Yes we had 14 named storms, 5 Hurricanes, of which 2 were major. But this article in the Miami Herald points out the miss by the forecasters. This article from the Houston Chronicle suggests that some storms did not deserve a name. I agree and had blogged about these Sub Tropical systems early in the season.
Which brings me to the new beginning: My new web site is ready! This link will take you to the What's New Page. Don' forget to look at the menu tabs for Weather Graphics, Radars, and Maryland Spotlights on County weather.This blog as you see it can be seen in my new site with a clean and simplified look. So the next time I mention that I blogged about something months ago, this archive will help you find it. For those of you that have built web sites, know the work involved. So doing this myself, and getting in by my deadline of December is a personal accomplishment. I miss my family, as I have spent a lot of my free time working on this. Thank you all for your support and allowing me to share my thoughts with you over the past few years. Now I can share more, along with your comments and pics, etc. There is still a little more development needed, but let me know what you think. Please remember to bookmark the new page.

I am waiting for the new model runs, so my forecast map for Sunday is what I am sticking with. As the cold air gets 'dammed in' from High Pressure in Eastern Canada, I still see a chance for a morning mix - especially north of Baltimore. The gradual warming will likely bring our high in the 40s at night. So mostly rain for this one, but some flurries possible on Tuesday. It can be found in my Weather Graphics