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Sunday, August 31, 2008

Models Zero Gustav in on Louisiana

I said last week that I would be amazed if this storm worked out with precision on the LA coastline. In fact, I continued to call for the model bias to far west. Well, I was wrong, here this morning you can see the model agreement slamming just west of New Orleans. This reminds me of the super-storm of '93, when the MRF model was put on the scene with a near perfect forecast 120 hrs (5 Days) out. Sometimes the really big ones don't have to deal with being impacted by other systems to screw things up.
This path would keep the storm surge on the worst case scenario. Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi River will take a steady flow from the east and pile up more water than Katrina just based on track alone.

Fluctuation in Strength

Here is the Potential Heat Map showing the warm pool loop north of Cuba, while the depth of the warm water and the temperatures are not as supportive closer to the coast. This is why Katrina weakened just before landfall, and Gustav should do the same. So while it may get back to Cat 4 or maybe just barely a 5, it should break down a little as it reaches land late tomorrow. The bad news is that the 'wave memory' will have a surge resembling the strong version of the storm. This is mush like Isabel did for us. It peaked out at 150mph winds 3-4 days before making landfall, but was beat down to a Category 1/2, with much stronger surge than anyone truly expected up the bay. Consider the forward speed as well, acting like a boat pushing a wake. As of this morning, it was swiftly moving at 16mph, and may speed up. That shortens the time until landfall, and it's chance to weaken much. It also itself increases the wave pressure in front of the storm. so a Category 3 storm moving at 15-20mph may produce a higher surge than a Category 3 moving at 5 mph. In fact you might equate the surge to that of a Category 5- pushing the limits of 25-35 feet of water, similar to what Katrina did to Biloxi, MS.

Tropical Storm Hanna is like the GOP convention. It's still there, but not getting the press coverage it should. We will have to watch this storm, as it may now shift north from the Bahamas to the east coast.
Here is the GFS model showing it at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay next Saturday. Wouldn't that just stink! I'm supposed to host a Fantasy Football League Party that day!
This is just one of the many potentials, and still 1 week away.
It's good TV, but a horrible set up for too many people. Good luck and G-D speed to the people on the coast.

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Gustav Gearing Up, Getting Ready For The Gulf

I am out of town today, but wanted to post the latest model track. This is courtesy of Hamweather. The models have a consensus up until Monday, and then a few split off away from Louisiana. This idea here is worse for New Orleans since it would pass to it's west and bring in the stronger surge in from the East. The bright side us that it will peak out and then weaken on it's way towards land with cooler water and some wind shear. Enjoy The Weather Channel's coverage. I will try to post more in the morning.

Justin Berk AMS CBM Sent from my iPhone

Friday, August 29, 2008

Gustav Hype and Heat Potential, Labor Day Looking Up

Since this is the last day of our noon show, I am taking it easy this morning. There has already be so much hype over Gustav- especially on this anniversary of Katrina- that it may actually scare the storm away!

Here is a map of the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential. It measures more than just water surface temperature, but the depth of that warm water as well. When big waves churn up the water, having that heat source go deep is crucial. You can see that there is a source of heat energy into the Gulf, but that drops off closer to land on the coastline. That may be important, since like Katrina- Gustav could weaken on it's way to landfall. The jury is still out on the track considering the influence of approaching High Pressure into the Central Plains of the US. You can still track along with Stormpulse on my Tropics Page in the Seasonal Tab on the main web site.
Also-Check out the TV Graphics which highlight the improved weather for Labor Day. It looks like we will be close to 90F by the middle of next week. Summer is not done yet, but I will be in the Poconos this weekend to see some of the leaves already turning.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

'Fay' Here Today, Gustav Getting Stronger, Phoenix Flooding and Water Rescue Video

NOTE: I deleted this video, since I could not get it to load up on a pause. If you want the link, send ma and email...
What remains of the historic Tropical Storm Fay is just a wet storm. It's here today, and living up to it's image as a slow mover. Our threat of showers will last into Saturday. The afternoons will have more impressive returns on the radar, and that means a good chance of building thunderstorms. We need the rain, so suck it up- at least be happy your lawn gets to do just that.
This cold front in the Great Lakes will try to sweep everything through on Saturday, and if it times out properly, then we will have an improved Sunday along with Labor Day Monday. The 'end of summer' could give us sunshine and temps back into the 80s...

Gustav had weakened yesterday, but strengthening this morning. As of this morning, it was still a Tropical Storm. In fact it went against my theory, went got a push to the southwest. It is being influenced by High Pressure in the Gulf. While the latest track (follow along on the Tropics Page in the Seasonal tab above- on shows a target for New Orleans, I would be stunned it that worked out with that precision this far out. Odds are it will end up somewhere in the 300 mile range in the 5 day cone... but at least New Orleans is taking this seriously. That had similar warning for Katrina, but if I went further into- it would get political, and some of you won't like the real truth about the responsibility (it was the local jurisdiction's fault). Needless to say, expecting New Orleans to take this on the chin is a stretch. If and when this play out a little differently, can we finally accept that the long range models on Global Warming are not precise as well???? Computer Models are not perfect! Although on a rare occasion the blind squirrel finds a nut. Here you can see the outlook shows another storm that may get named Hanna today. Two more stretching back to the African coast. We are entering the most active 4 weeks of Hurricane season and it is living up to is expectation.

Monsoon Mania:
This is the time of year the desert gets wet. It's the end of summer when the winds shift and allow rain to fall in the southwest. Here is video (deleted on Aug 31- email me for the link)of Live coverage from our sister station in Phoenix showing a car stuck against a bridge with a dangerous rescue. Only 6 inches of moving water can pick up an SUV. This is obviously much higher, but what a rescue attempt. I can't understand why they went to commercial break???

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Sunrise To Soaker

Here was the view I showed on TV at 6:15am. Official sunrise was 6:31am, but the pre-dawn light played a nice trick with the lightning and gave us this foreshadowing? Have you heard of the saying, "Red sky in morning, sailors take warning."?
That relates to the sunrise colors showing up like this with advancing high and mid level clouds ahead of a storm. Today the storm is the remains of Fay.
As that moves through the Appalachians, it is running up against the High Pressure that has brought us northeasterly winds and this cool dry feel to the air. Who will win today. The computer models are split. So much that the NGM model has us near 80F with sun, while the NAM has us at 72F with rain beginning close to noon. What to do? What to do?
I split the difference expecting rain Annapolis southbound, but dry Baltimore and north. To play it safe, just bring an umbrella with you, and know that I did my best.
This will be a tough call as the center of Low pressure will pass to our west. Over the next few days, a cool NE will hold us in the 70s, and the best chance of showers will be during the afternoons with developing daytime storms.

Tropical Storm Gustav
The storm clipped Haiti overnight and weakened below Hurricane Status. It will reorganize over the water today, and could reach Major Hurricane status at Category 3 or higher into the weekend. The computer models continue to try and keep this south of Cuba, then enter the Gulf of Mexico. The most disturbing outlook is the primary model the National Hurricane Center uses-the GFDL. Here (click image for larger view), the model is fastest, and locked in on New Orleans 120 hrs out with a Major Hurricane of a Category 3-, but weakening as it approaches land. HMMmmmmmmmmmmmmm The odds of this working out exactly as we see 5 days out is very slim. That is the good news. The bad news is that if this stay on the consensus track, it will have more warm water and likely reach that dreaded Major Hurricane Status. Stay tuned. Remember, our rain on the way, is from what used to be Tropical Storm Fay.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Falling Temps, Falling Rain, And A New Hurricane

This new air mass has dramatically dropped our temperatures. As it moved in this morning, I watched us go from near 70F into the 50s just north of the city. This northern branch has been treating us to an autumn preview since last week's High Pressure . The same one that caused Fay to stall in Florida. This one will move through, and allow the remnants of Fay to slip up to our west. The question is the where will Fay roll? There is a split in the models- some taking it up into Ohio, while the Canadian and GFS still trying to bring it over Maryland Thursday-Saturday. Working out those details will be the difference between the chance of showers, or steady rain. Stay tuned...

Another Hurricane
Reminder that the StormPulse Tracking Maps can now be found in the Seasonal Tab above (main web site)- Tropics link.
Here is the tracking map and stats as of 5am this morning. Gustav strengthened in a hurry, and has a lot of warm water to feed off of. The question is will it do so, or hurt itself with it's path. The National Hurricane Center outlook has a very large margin for error 5 days out at the end of the cone. According to this, Gustav can end up anywhere from Belize to Tampa, FL. I have circled the right side of the track considering the model bias I have noted with many of our recent storms. These tropical systems tend to stay on the right or east side of the forecast path. That would allow it to ride over Cuba, much like Fay did. That would hinder it's potential over the rugged mountains and keeping it away from the warm water it uses for fuel.
This is somewhat connected to what we have in place in the East.... If Fay's remnants are allowed to move farther east/closer to us, then that means the ridge of High Pressure we have will have less impact in any pressure holding Gustav on the southern fringe. That puts soggy Florida in the potential grip of another soaker. By that point, anything is possible. Which means we could watch the or East Coast for Gustav's future.

Monday, August 25, 2008

End of Summer Cold

Perhaps it's the exhaustion of a full week of Fay (Stormpulse Tracking now on it's own page in Seasonal Tab above- main web site). Perhaps it's the lack of sleep from watching Phelps little Nastia late night from Beijing... Either way- I took it on the chin this weekend with a cold. The worst cold I have had in years. No one is supposed to get sick in the summer, are they? It just seemed like a waste, with great weather to boot. The yard work was neglected, but I was able to clean up my hard drive a little bit.
Now for the 'real' cold that some of you might care more about...
The Farmer's Almanac will hit the newsstand Tuesday with a forecast that may hurt in many ways....
While this is one of MANY almanacs, and a forecast that is generated up to 2 years ahead of time... it does boast an 80% accuracy. Here is their account from last year's forecast.
So what is it?
"Numbs The Word"
Or to put it bluntly: Colder than normal for most of the US.
At least that is what this publication is saying... Click here for the AP story. You know, that just got a free commercial out of this forecast... and I bet I could make some money if I had the first winter outlook attached in print. So take ti for what it's worth...
There is also Old Farmer's Almanac that gets into the swing soon. Not to leave out the Hagerstown Almanac, and numerous others.
The National Weather Service is actually going the other way- with a warmer than normal winter outlook. Here is the temperature outlook from The Climate Prediction Center for November-December-January. The orange shading speaks for itself.
So why will this hurt,? Those of you that know me, know I love snow. The utilities will no doubt get exploited, as well as a wide range of forecast to follow...In the past- I have posted all of the winter forecasts I could find on my old web page with Weather Talk Radio. I will put a new list together on this site this year, so stay tuned for the details.. As for me, I like to wait until the fall pattern sets up to get an idea of what we will see into the winter...

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Quiet For Us, Catastrophic for Florida

Not much to say, but a boring a beautiful day. I did not post yesterday since I was on assignment in Harper's Ferry. Poor me, right? That story will air tomorrow- and it was a perfect time to visit. So for today, I will stay local and enjoy what we have. Clear, cool, and quiet.
It's this Canadian High Pressure bringing us beautiful weather, that is squashing Tropical Storm Fay. This same air mass will provide the steering current to bring it back west into the weekend. As of this morning, Melbourne officially had 7.97" of rain yesterday, but nearby areas have had up to 25 inches since the storm move in. Governor Christ has called it "Catastrophic Flooding". Unfortunately there is more on the way and it may be called biblical when all is said and done.The StormPulse Map is below, and now has it's own page in the Seasonal Tab Above (main web site)

Tuesday, August 19, 2008


We will have another day near 90F with a small chance of a thundershowerThis morning, Fay made landfall in CAPE Coral as a Tropical Storm with winds of 60 mph. The good news is that it ran out of water (it's fuel source). The bad news, is that it is slowing down. As of 5am, it was moving at around 8mph. It should slow to 5 mph which will keep the heavy rain over the same areas longer. Remember the storm in Towson last week? This will be that on a much larger scale. Say compare my swimming skills to Phelps, and you'll get the idea. Here is the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center rainfall forecast for the next 5 days... You can see a 8.4 inch total near Ft. Meyers. The light blue bulls eye east of Jacksonville is 25 inches! That yellow shade does put most of the state in 7 inches to over 12 inches. While a drought buster, it will be a major flood producer.
This is because the storm forecast is to cross Florida, get out over the Atlantic and turn back west near Jacksonville. This is yet more proof to my theory of the forecast track bias. This is far to the east of the original expectation. Any change in track, stalling, or earlier turn could significantly add to the rain totals.

Monday, August 18, 2008

Our Heat, A Solar Powered Tie, and T.S. Fay

A Little Bit of Heat
Today and tomorrow we will be within a few degrees of 90F. This is the bounce back I mentioned last week, when we had a preview of autumn chill. Often these swings feed off of each other. So now we get to other side of an active upper level flow- and allow some of that lat summer heat to spill in. While it is rather common to get temperatures in the 90s in late August, it does become less frequent as the sun angle get lower in the sky, and the days get shorter. Today's sunset for example, is at 7:57pm. In late June it was 8:36pm. In total, there is about 1 1/2 hours less sunlight than we had at the beginning of summer.

Solar Powered Tie

Two months after Father's Day, North Carolina State University researchers have developed a new technology to imprint solar panels. To show off ow thin and flexible they are, this tie was the best they could do. A fashion statement? If so, shouldn't it be green? It does come with a pocket for your cell phone or other power hungry device. Oh, by the way- don't most people work under florescent lights?

Tracking Fay
- From StormPulse... (The active maps will be moved to the current day blog post)
Below is the latest info regarding Fay. Remember that you can control the image, so click and zoom to your hearts content. As of this morning, most of the rain was on the east side of the storm as it crossed Cuba. Over the warmer water this afternoon it may strengthen...but there are two things I would focus on:
First: The track compared to the forecast cone... I noticed a model bias a few years ago, and it proved itself as recently as Hurricane Dolly's jump north of Brownsville, and T.S. Edouard eluding Galveston- also to the north/east. So instead of a Key West path through Punta Gorda (Charlie's landfall in 2004), it might hug the coast, or go right up the peninsula.
Secondly: Remnant rain by Friday. While the National Hurricane Center Track is past Atlanta Georgia, the Mid Range Models such as the GFS and Canadian have Fay Stalling near Savanna, GA. That could be a major flooding event if it holds true, but hold that rain away from us. Eventually, when our protective bubble moves on, we could watch this system chug north up the coast. This on is worth watching for us.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Stormy Afternoon. We Could Do it Again!

The time line is the same as the day before. 4-7pm. only difference is the is that is was much more widespread, as you can see here, roughly two dozen hail reports in central Maryland.
Most of the these reports ranged from 1/2" to 1.00" with the largest in Baltimore County, and another seperate cell south of Annapolis in AA County.

Here is raw home video of the hail in Parkton (Northern Baltimore County) from Randy on our morning crew. Definitely impressive...Unfortunately it has come to my attention that there may be a problem viewing this in Firefox's browser...

So, could we do it again? It looks like it....
Here is the Slight Risk threat from the Storm Prediction Center
As this cold front approaches, I see as a slow mover, so we could be dealing with this throughout the afternoon and into tonight.
The slight risk is just for the threat of severe weather. That means 3/4" hail and wind over 60mph.
However the chance of strong storms is much more likely to be widespread. That includes these heavy rain producing storms and a tremendous amount of lightning.

Here are the upper level (500mb) charts for this evening and tomorrow.

Although the cold front passes, which usually brings drier weather...
I have a hard time ignoring all of this energy.
The vorticity or spin is highlighted in the green and yellow. When you see the vort max, that yellow blob, to our south, it usually translates to a good chance of convective activity for us. That can range from afternoon snow showers in the winter, to strong storms now. That is why I have held on to the threat of more storms on Saturday. I have gone out on a limb here, since the NWS and my department has continued to try and keep us dry. We shall see. But here is my support. What I found interesting is that the overnight models have leaned in that direction, but not all. This covers the entire spread!
NAM: High 74F, Cloudy with 64% chance of showers and storms.
NGM: High 81F, 21% chance of showers.
GFS: High 86F, Sunny

The 12Z (morning) run does pull back a little on the trough, so the chance of storms will be late morning through early afternoon. That could be followed clearing for the rest of the afternoon- for a decent day and slightly warmer temps.

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Stalled Storm=Flooding. More Showers Today- Right For The Wrong Reason

It's a case of- you got it, or you didn't . This storm was bad, and my co workers told em this morning. It rained so hard, they could not see out their windows as it sat in the sat spot for hours.
I have seen a handful of storms like this over my last 11 summers in Baltimore. It's likely a small Bay breeze Boundary set up- which is an invisible wall where the west wind meets up with an easterly flow that develops off of the Chesapeake. That wall often sets up near the fall line, where the hills begin to lead into the mountains to our west. It was around this time in 2000. It rained so hard, the Jones Falls Flooded and cars in Hamden were carried away. I had a group of friends going to the Jimmy Buffet concert at Merriweather, and they got stuck in the flood on the west side of the beltway. That event, also confined to a small area, while just a few miles away, almost nothing.
NWS Doppler estimates here (see the color legend on the left) show over 5 inches in Hampton. The good news, it was right on top of Loch Raven Reservoir. Our top two StormCenter Weathernet rainfall amounts:
Towson- Cromwell Valley ES= 3.86"
Parkville- Parkville MS = 1.37"

Today's forecast is a bust. For me at least.
I bit on the one abrupt model run that had the coastal hang closer and give us rain. NOPE! However, before you call me Dope on a Rope... it is more humid and a cold front is approaching. The chance of more showers and storms will return this afternoon and last at least into Friday....

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Coastal Storm. Autumn Like Pattern Continues

(UPDATED @ Noon)
In addition to the cool air, and the upper Level Low in the lower Great Lakes and PA this weekend, this developing southern storm will also look like October or November. This Low Pressure rounds the corner and heads up the coast. I just caught it on the 12Z models right before my noon broadcast yesterday. There is a wide range among the models as to how this will play out. If it hugs the coast, we not only get more rain (and it will be the steady stuff), but it will keep our temperatures in the 70s. If it pushes farther off of the coast, then we could miss out and have a rather warm and humid day. I went for the cooler wet solution, an abrupt change from my call to keep us dry.

Here the NAM's 12Z output for Thursday morning. It once again has that Low well off of the coast, but some moisture lingering in a pre-frontal trough ahead of our next cold front. While it may be a different cause, the result may be the same... I have kept the threat of storms in for the afternoon as well.
Still, this is an impressive early season storm. I will be watching to see if this pattern tries to repeat and set up in September or October. After we get through this weekend, I see our chances of a heat wave for the second half of August go up...

Tuesday, August 12, 2008


Living on a hill and afternoon showers has provided a vantage point for great rainbow spotting over the past few days.
This is what I captured yesterday afternoon. Indeed we had rain falling with the sun out, and this slow moving cell held the rainbow in the sky for nearly 30 minutes. A rarity!

I am glad I got this image, which turned out to be a much better overall experience then what I had on Friday.
I thought I would keep this story to myself, but it is so pathetic, I had to share...I was just relaxing on a day off, and doing some yard work/getting ready for dinner, when I spotted - uh- a rainbow. I realized that I had to get the camera, and did a light job into the house. I should add that I was barefoot, and it was wet. As soon as I made the turn from the driveway to the concrete garage- I bit it. With no traction, I wiped out and landed on the inside of my right knee. I stayed there for 30 second, just waiting. My wife, saw the whole thing and I think went back into the house quietly to hide her laughter. Here I was on an extended week, hoping to go out for an evening run, and play golf the next day, etc... When I realized nothing broke, I got up to get the camera and grab the photo. Scratch that, I hopped! Bruised and battered, I did have a pretty harsh contusion on my tibia, and sore lower quad muscle. "How would you explain this, if we had to go to the hospital", my wife asked. "Um, Doc, I was chasing a rainbow." Not my proudest moment, and now you all know. I did push myself out yesterday for that run, and came home to this. Not as exciting, but a better arc. It's got to bring good luck, right. I'm waiting for the bird droppings next.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Clear, Chilly for Anual Meteor Shower

How could I forget this morning... The Perseid Meteor Shower is at it's peak, and should be great viewing... if you bundle up. The best time to view will be after 11pm.
Temperatures will dip into the 50s in those rural spots where the viewing will be best, but the coldest time will be towards the low temperatures may not be what you sit through.
The record low for Tuesday is 54F set back in1962. We could be close.

Autumn in August

Did you like this weekend? Saturday was absolutely beautiful, but Sunday brought some flooding rain to Harford and Cecil Counties...
Here is the satellite image from Sunday evening. What an impressive upper level Low just over Toronto. This is a position I would expect in October, and the track southeast today through PA is quite unusual. As a result, it will be hard to completely fight off the clouds. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will fire up this afternoon- but mainly to our north.
This pattern is important for two reasons:
First: The sharp trough will likely propagate a large ridge within 3 weeks. Summer is not done, and I would plan for another heat wave by the end of the month.
Secondly: The pattern we have now, could be foreshadowing for a pattern this fall or winter. It's something Tony Pann and I discussed often on our old radio show - Weather Talk. Atmospheric Memory
This describes how patterns not only develop, but repeat themselves. Just a few things to look at...
Much like the drought we had last summer, it lasted into much of the winter. We ended up with a pitiful winter snow tally. Also, if we can get a ridge to time out for the end of August and into September, our chances of catching a tropical system off of the coast will go up. Tracks of such storms, can also lay the groundwork for Nor'easter paths to follow.

White Marlin Open:
Less than 1/10 of a pound is all that kept Rodger Mooney (Timonium, MD) from the big money prize in the White Marlin Open last week. As a result, a difference of about $750,000. Click here for the results...

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Energy Plan: A Third Party Candidate

Or just a third party... Or should I say PART-TAY!
Paris Hilton posted this video yesterday in response to McCain using her in his ad. About 20 seconds of this sounds good....

Why am I so interested in the energy plan...well it all ties into the weather. First is the environmental aspect. Is there contribution to Climate Change? By now, you know my stance. However, there is major pressure and impact on the policy planning. Next will be the winter season. You think it's bad on a hot summer day running the AC, how about when we turn the corner into a colder winter? the tight oil market will be tied into every cold spell and winter storm. Yes, I do believe that we are overdue for a cold and snowy winter, so I would like to have some plan in action by then.
As for the energy market itself... A friend of mine just began working for an energy trading company as a forecaster. I find this field fascinating. His job is to monitor the forecasts for 13 cities and jump on a 'bust'. Essentially, if the temperatures will stay below the forecast, he will contact traders, who in turn can make money on that. Energy companies plan their production on expected use based on the weather. If they plan for a 94F day, but storms hit earlier and it only hits 88F, then less demand from customers using their AC will result in added energy not used. That can be bought and sold. in addition, these companies can lower their production based on demand to be more efficient themselves. How about that?

Local Weather:
We will see less demand on our home AC units in the next few days. While I expect us to reach near 90F behind today's cold front, it will gradually get cooler each day into the weekend. Friday will be seasonable day... By Sunday, some of our northern suburbs will have lows in the 50s and may end up between 75F-80F in the afternoon.
Pretty good, huh?

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Edouard Making Landfall, I Dropped The Clicker

Here is a great view of the storm from the guys at StormPulse... You can control the map, so enjoy. You'll notice it making landfall to the north (or right side) of the forecast landfall. The bias trend continues...I have more to say below....

This morning, I dropped my clicker on the air. It was the first time in 12 years (dating back to my days in Binghamton, NY) that I did that. With the loud smack landing, the battery flew out, and all I could do was try to not laugh. I was just mentioning the prize money for the White Marlin Tournament in OC, when I said, "What are we doing here {CRASH}, and may be some are saying that about me now." Well, it may have been poetic justice. Yesterday I made the charge against the inflated oil market. I didn't hear any complaints when instead oil fell below $120 for the first time since May. This was due to two factors: First, Edouard remained weaker and maybe the post Katrina hype has settled down to reality in how the oil rigs can handle a storm. Secondly, both presidential candidates spoke on energy issues, promoting the fact that 'something' will happen with the next administration. I don't want to get political here (although some of you think I do debunking the Global Warming Hype). Whatever person/plan you agree with, most of us agree that energy is the biggest issue of this election, and just the attention to demand also configured into the equation yesterday- dropping prices. Those commodities speculators forecast just like us weather guys/gals. Except they put money into it. I have always been intrigued why they don't get more flack, since they often put other peoples money into the bids. That's your Mutual Funds and 401K plans at work.
Regardless, Edouard results should be a good thing with heavy rain and busting the Texas 100F+ heat.
Locally, strong thunderstorms may move in with this cold front. Nothing like the tornado warnings and 94mph wind gust outside of Chicago had last night, but SPC does have us in a slight risk for severe storms this afternoon.
Here is the NAM 700mb map for this evening, showing the vort max riding north into PA, but enough energy riding along the cold front through central MD. Our prime time for storms will likely be between 5pm and 10pm, but some showers could linger overnight.
Tomorrow will actually turn HOT- behind the cold front. Downslope wind from the mountains and a delay of the cool air will allow us to get into the lower 90s.

Monday, August 4, 2008

Home Sweet Home, Problems Elewhere...

OK, I am back to my old routine this week, and the weather has cooperated. At least today will be quiet albeit with a warm up back close to 90F. Tuesday and Wednesday we will jump back into the 90s with the whole humidity and storm thing.
Look at the heat wave in the south!
Widespread temps above 100F. That's Dallas that jumps out with 107F. That was a new record for them, but if they hit that mark today... it will only tie a record set in 1951.
This heat will likely continue and just a small piece gets in here Tuesday and Wednesday. We will likely jump into the 90s, but that pales in comparison. Our hottest day so far this year... 96F, back on June 10th

Tropical Storm Edouard
This is a storm like Dolly, in strengthening mode. The morning update from NHC does keep it just below hurricane status at landfall, but any small fluctuation could change that.
The interest lies in the oil rigs and hyper-sensitive market we are in. Remember Katrina? No, this is not even close, but in the same general area. The oil rigs can withstand this storm, but production may slow as personnel get evacuated. This oil market is like NASA's Mercury Rocket Program in the early 1960s. A quick launch into orbit, then a slow parachuted landing.
Below is a map of the oil rigs in the Edouard's path.... as of this morning, Oil was up about $1, and may react to the ever changing forecast. So once again, it looks like another excuse to bring gas prices back up, at least for the short term. After the storm passes, and no damage has occurred, we can watch the much slower reaction on the way down....
More importantly, there could be some flooding in the Galveston/Houston region of Texas at landfall. Some of these ares had heavy rain with Dolly's landfall 1 week and a half ago....

Friday, August 1, 2008

I'm Back To Send You Away

After 8 days away, I planned my family vacation to North Carolina's Outerbanks around traffic and stories. I missed some big storms here, but was able to test the blogging skills of my new iPhone. Glad some of you checked in to see how it went... the posts and still lingering below...

Leaving on a Wednesday afternoon, and returning on the following Thursday did let us skip a lot of the other vacationers. It also allowed me to get back to tell the story of our latest 1 Tank Trip on ABC2's good Morning Maryland. Last week's story was on the Eastern Shore in Chestertown. Today's story took place in Cecil County's North East and Elk Neck State Park. Here you can see the camera from our WeatherNet. Glick on the image for the local weather conditions.
I have to say, this was a neat treat. I have heard all sorts of stories, good and bad, about this area. Honestly, I don't understand how you can the bad. The people were great, and the park itself will surprise you. Who would have through that you can find hills like this right along the bay, along with an historic light house. Very cool. Check back on later today to see the video.

As for our weather.... The heat is back this afternoon! As the sun returns, we jump back into the 90s. This will be the first time in a week and a half, as it is turning out to be a rather tame summer. We only hit 90F 10 times in July. It doesn't take much in early August to do that, and we should get there today.

A nice Canadian Air Mass is heading our way, but the transition day on Saturday will bring us showers and storms. I would suggest lloking to the Great Lakes tonight. Some of their storms could hold together and reach us between midnight and daybreak. That would make Saturday the type of day that starts with clouds/showers- but some breaks of sun will help more storms to build in the afternoon. It will be worth it though, as Sunday will be sunny and much less humid. Good Stuff!!!!