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Sunday, November 25, 2007

I Like What I See

First it was flurries - last night. It's a little early to get excited about snow, even though some ski areas are open. Our below normal temperature pattern is holding, yet this is just a balance of the heat we had in October and early this month. We are now just about normal at BWI as it stands today.
This pattern change however is showing promise. Here is the early week storm as seen by the Canadian model. Here you can see over 1 inch of rain for the south- including Atlanta, GA. Definitely a pattern change for them. This storm is coming from the southern branch of the jet. A sign of a winter pattern, one that will tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture. This is a signal for improvement in the dry south US. Nothing surprising here with our La Nina pattern. So what you see next is somewhat expected...

Looking longer range, I have posted the 5 day GFSx. This is the upper level 500mb flow. The spots highlighted are vort maxes, or pieces of energy that are ingredients for building storms.
The closed Low off of the southern California coast will open up and develop the next southern branch Low. While I highlighted a ZONAL flow for the eastern US, the jet itself should be located just south of the Great Lakes. So this time, there will be colder air in place. The pattern for La Nina would have these developing Lows ride west of the Appalachians. That means snow for midwest, and rain for the B'more and the rest of the I-95 cities. But if the cold air holds like we have now, then a slight push east with the next storm could shift snow and ice potential east as well. No Guarantees! But it is something to watch. Note: December 5th has been the 1st major snow event for Baltimore 4 of the last 5 years. It is about that time....

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