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Monday, November 17, 2008

First Flakes=Stickage

Watch the snow here. This image will update every 15 minutes- but you may need to reload the page.I coined the phrase stickage many years ago. I think it's self explanatory, but I will elaborate below. You may have had a snow shower Sunday afternoon at your place, but all of us get a shot later today through tomorrow. I have a sense of pride, since I first called this last week, and now everyone else is hopping on board. No, this will not be a major event, but an early arrival of winter is exciting. I have learned a long time ago not to blow anything out of proportion, since it will get exaggerated on TV. That being said, our first snow is on the way.
Here is the overnight NAM model for this afternoon with a cold front type passage of an upper level trough. I've highlighted this with the purple hashed line, and the snow turn over in white. While the surface temperatures will likely make it into the 40s, it will fall, and drop to near or below freezing tonight. But it's the cloud level temps that will determine when the flakes fall. Plan for showers this afternoon that will start as rain, and then turn over. Once it gets dark, and the colder air spills in, light snow becomes more widespread.

Tuesday morning's 500mb map, shows the vort max (red X) in the prime spot to our south. This will maximize the potential, and may enhance what I am already seeing. The light snow will be around early, and linger with flurries or snow showers into the afternoon. This may turn out to be something explosive off of the coast. I have seen this a few times in the past month... and is exactly what happened with that October snowstorm just before Halloween. The atmosphere tends to hold memory, and repeat itself, so hold on it could be more that even what I am saying.

I am waiting for the morning computer models to see how this might evolve, but here is the expected precipitation with a range of .01 to .05" inches. That is enough to drop a half an inch or more in the colder spots. While I am focusing on the grassy areas, some roads will get covered overnight as the cold air spills in. Stay tuned, and enjoy!

There has also been some buzz about a large coastal storm for next Sunday and Monday. The latest GFS has this a little farther west or inland-which would be more rain for us. It's still far out, and we have to see how this cold air establishes itself over the next few days. I'll watch this each day to see how each run treats it, but can't take it seriously until Wednesday or Thursday.

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