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Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Morning High Thanks To Upper Level Low

Today's temperature forecast is one of the hardest to pinpoint. We were at 45F at midnight, and remained nearly steady into the morning. The cold front moving through will allow a wind shift and new cold air mass to move in. The wind direction from the west, will modify the cold air as it rides down the mountains, so steady or falling temperatures is what I expect this afternoon.

Snow Showers:
This is all based on the upper level support. As the upper level low spins over northern Pennsylvania, it will keep the atmosphere unstable. Here is the evening map, showing all of the energy overhead. That means, even if you see some clearing this morning, the clouds will fill back in, and a few showers will develop afternoon. The best chance will be west and north of the city, and the colder air will allow for flurries to fall. Even a potent snow shower possible.

The same NAM model here with a higher resolution, shows the upper level Low drifting in Canada. The primary energy will be locked up around Lakes Erie and Ontario. I've highlighted one potential plume from Lake Erie into northern Virginia. This would happen Wednesday afternoon, and might bring the better chance of flurries for DC rather than Baltimore.

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