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Sunday, January 13, 2008

Updated: Record Anniversary Heat Wave and Elevation Snow

This is a quick morning update. I will do my best to post this afternoon with a snow-cast map.
First: This is the anniversary of the most impressive January Heat Wave on record in Baltimore.
The year: 1932

  • January 13th: 76F
  • January 14th: 79F * Hottest ever for the month
  • January 15th: 78F
As for tonight's storm, still on the fence. My basic impression is two-fold.
  1. As coastal develops, cold air will wrap in at cloud level, surface temps will be bordering freezing. That means sleet and snow likely, but higher elevations will have a better chance for 'stickage' and some accumulation. Note: BWI is near sea level. Towson, Cockeysville and Owings Mills are a little over 400Ft. Reisterstown and Parkton are close to 800Ft.
  2. Monday morning the storm pulls away, but 'comma' head or heavy precip around the low center may clip eastern sections. Based on temperature profile and track, Cecil county could be the big winner. Early sampling shows potential for 3"-6" from Cecil County to Philadelphia. While NYC and Boston could get 1 foot of snow. Around the beltway, elevation plays role for north side to have the best shot of 'stickage' and accumulation... but roads temps may also be an issue.
Afternoon Update:
The storm might not look like much when you go to bed. It will develop overnight, but looks like just past us. Once a Low Pressure center passes our latitude (north of 39.0N) then we tend to get downsloped and cut off our precip. That looks like the position of the Low when it rapidly develops. The NAM model here for 7am Monday is actually the most impressive. Most have it well past us by then. If you watched the Packer's game last night and saw their snow- it's that Great Lake's storm that is pushing this coastal development a little farther east. This is the 3rd model run with with less moisture and warmer temperatures. I does not look promising! I've highlighted the general forecast area in yellow while the comma head I mentioned above just clips Cecil County. If you watch Good Morning MD on ABC2 I will be focusing on this Monday. Below is the video blog and my snowcast map.

This map was my call from home, below is Emily Gracey's map from ABC2. I think her conservative call on snow will work out better than mine... this made be just a little farther east, and pretty much done for us in the morning.

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