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Sunday, June 1, 2008

Hurricane Season...

And so it begins... or began this is- 12 hours ahead of schedule. The Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1- November 30. This year it got a 1 day head start with Arthur.
The official National Hurricane Center Outlook shows a chance of slightly above normal activity. We are in the middle of a 30 year cycle of increased activity. The last active period was from the 1930s to 1960s. We had a lull in the '70s and '80s. The recent spike began in 1995- see the chart below. You'll also notice that spikes are about the same. The chart only goes out to that monster 2005 year, and does not include the decline in the past 2 season.
So, does this early arrival mean anything? Well, not really. While The infamous 2005 season did begin June 8th with Arlene. However, May has historically had 19 Tropical Storms. While the chart below shows that is less than 5% of the time- it does not signify how the rest of the season will go. What is a staple, is the month of September. Thanks to the peak of Atlantic water temperatures in this month, the most hurricanes will form- feeding off of that heat.
Here is the 2008 list. Arthur has already been crossed off....

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