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Monday, June 23, 2008

Hippy Dippy Weatherman- Dead

The forecast tonight: Dark
"It's 8:00 in Los Angeles, It's 9:00 in Denver, It's 10:00 in Chicago. In Baltimore it's 4:42"

By now most of you have heard that comedian George Carlin passed away. While I can't repeat most of his 'stuff' here since kids check my blog, he was a man who risked his career to push the limit and changed the face of comedy. In all of his censored glory, he was also one of the first to do a bit about a weatherman~ albeit it a little insulting.

Severe Storms Potential: Slight Risk

Combine cold air aloft due to a stubborn upper level low in eastern Canada with the warm humid air in place, and you have an environment ready to produce more storms. Add in high sun and mid day heat, the result of those storms will may turn severe. For those of you with meteorology backgrounds- you'll note two things to look for when forecasting severe weather:
First is CAPE- Convective Available Potential Energy.
The GFS has us above the limit at 1500 J/Kg, but the NAM is lower at around 11 J/Kg.
Lifted Index in negative numbers indicates more potential. The larger negative, the more severe the risk. The GFS has BWI at -4.7, while the NAM ranges from -3.6- to -4.0. One interesting aspect of reading extracted NAM data is the forecast hail size at 0.81". That would be in the severe range and qualify A Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued this afternoon. Look out for lines of storms to fire up as mid level impulses focus the energy. You can follow along on my Storm Page along with TV Graphics in the tabs above.

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