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Monday, June 16, 2008

About Face!

Wow!~It's been 5 days since my last post so thanks for still checking in. It does look like we are about to end our summer preview. The same pattern that had locked in pre-summer heat in the east and flooding rain in the mid-west... will shift east.
Just to get your attention, here is a dramatic photo from AP's Lori Mehman from Orchard, IO on June 10th.
That pattern does shift itself east today in a diminished form. While the weather has been wild, it has been essentially the same areas that continued to get hit, that has made the problem as bad as it is. Imagine getting hit with storms like we had last Tuesday- for four or five days in a row. That sums it up.

Today's cold front will bring some strong storms for us, but more importantly it will bring in the long awaited trough to balance out our heat.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined us in a moderate risk for severe weather. The cold front was not well defined this morning, but there is evidence of dramatic cooling aloft. That means that once the daily heating gets the storms started, they can continue to grow quickly and dramatically. Most of the energy will be just north, but the primary threat will be strong straight line winds and hail. Considering the damage in Lutherville last Tuesday, and Anne Arundel County the Wednesday before... it does not take much to cause problems. One of the deceiving facts is that straight line winds can have winds stronger than some tornadoes... and doe more wide spread damage. Especially in areas under a micro burst. Hail from storms yesterday were in the order of 1 inch, so it could warrant some watches and warnings this afternoon. My Storm Page will have the latest.
Here is Wednesday Evening's 500mb map showing the trough in the east that will keep our temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal. This is an environment where sunny mornings turn to partly cloudy afternoons and little disturbances can spark some strong storms. The ridge out west will mean extreme heat and increased wild fire threat. Fortunately the nation's heartland will have dry weather and receding water in the mix.

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