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Friday, February 29, 2008

Leap Year Day- A Break From the Norm...

It will snow late today or tonight. I know this not from my scientific background. Not from the computer models, analysis, or even my third eye. It's because I got my haircut yesterday. Nikki reminded me that almost every time I got a cut since December (4th), it snowed the next day or night. Sometimes it's these patterns that take a while to figure out. Fellow snow lovers- if I had known, I would have gone more often. Heck, I'd look like Norm Lewis by now if I knew it would had brought more snow..
It continues to be a blockbuster season just to our north.
Snow Spotlight: Concord, NH
Current Season: 102.2"
Normal Season: 50.0"
Last Season: 19.3"
On the ground this morning: 42"

There is model support however...
Here is the NGM model depiction for Saturday morning. The green shows the precipitation bullseye from Baltimore up through New England. It will be New England that wins with 6-12 inches of more snow.
Temperatures for us will be marginal near the bay and up the coast. Basically the I-95 stretch will be wet- or wet ground with some flakes. Just north it will be colder to support snow. From New Yorks suburbs through New England- 3-6 inches will fall. Our best bet will be as that cold air catches up- on the north side. That is why I see a chance for a dusting to 1 inch just north of the beltway. I would say Carroll to central Baltimore/Harford and Cecil Counties, and York County in PA have the best chance of this. The timing also shows it lingering in the morning with a slow improvement in the afternoon. So March rolls in on Saturday. Do we call it a lion or a lamb. I will go with the lamb since after the morning it will be an easy weather weekend. That means that the end of the month should be rough. "In like a lamb, out like a lion."

A big, but quick warm up!

The next storm will again take that inland track to our west. But strong ridging ahead of it will stream in some warm air. Here is the 850mb map for Monday showing temperatures at around 5,000Ft will be 12C-14C. That could translate to nearly 60F down on the ground. It will set the stage for just rain- at least on Tuesday. Beyond that is still up for debate as a cold pocket of air will try to wrap around the Low and could bring an elevation snow to central Maryland. But that would need some special conditions to set up. I am still holding out on jumping on that wagon. It is pretty certain

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