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Friday, February 22, 2008

Shifting Snow Bands. More Sleet and Ice

Scroll down for Sleet vs. Freezing Rain Animation:

Update at 8am:
What I got right:

  • An average of 1-2 inches at daybreak.
  • Most snow totals will end in the morning.
What I got wrong:
  • Snowcast was a bust.
  • Heavier snow north. The turn over is beginning there.
  • New Freedom had 3 inches, Hereford had 2 inches.
  • While I was aiming for 2 or more in Towson, we only got about 1"
5am Post:

As I drove in early today, snow in Hunt Valley turned to mostly sleet and freezing rain in Towson and ABC2 Studios in North Baltimore. That was 3:00AM. As of 4:30, it was back to snow. Here is the radar from 3:17am showing the sleet in Baltimore County. It went back to snow soon after, and the snow seems to be winning the push early.

I am wavering on my snow bands, but wanted to make a little adjustment. The fine tuning is to bring the 1-2 inch line into downtown Baltimore, while 2"-4" from north Baltimore through the Hereford Zone. I'd hate to look back and see that my first forecast was better, but I had to attempt to adjust this morning.

There is a guarantee of an ice event today. The question is when it turns to ice. As I have mentioned before, I often look at atmospheric thickness of certain layers. The thickness will expand when warmer, and shows the potential for sleet vs. freezing rain. For those of you that look at models, this diagram may help. The numbers listed in meters is the general limit for icy weather. If I have a chance I will try to post an example. The wintry precipitation diagram is just below.

Most important today: I see most places north and west of Baltimore staying near or below freezing. That will mean much more ice into the afternoon and evening.
A busy day, so I have to leave it here for now.

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