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Monday, October 27, 2008

Afternoon Update: Surprise Rain- Is This a Sign?

I had rain in my forecast this morning, but it was just for the northern areas. I did not expect this line to extend as far south as it did. However, the upper level maps this morning, did support it. Here is the 500mb map from the NGM showing the vorticity or energetic 'spin' aloft. This allows not only for enhancement of any showers in the afternoon, but surviving the trip across the mountains. That is exactly what it did, as seen on this radar snapshot from 2pm.

So is this a sign? A sign in this pattern that anything heading our way having a better chance of developing and maxing out. Well, here is the 500mb ma fro Wednesday morning. The next vort max, which essentially is the final push of cold air with this upper level Low, will pass just to our south. The vort max itself is seen in red, and this position is maximum potential for us in central Maryland. Combine this will cold air aloft, and my call from last week may still hold. Perhaps even more so with rain and snow showers not only in the mountains, but we could have the first flakes close to home by lunch on Wednesday. My fingers are crossed. Are yours? If you go to the Seasonal Tab on my full web site, you will see a new page I developed with Ski Bonk. Feel free to scroll around and get in the snow mood.

Here is the long range map from the Japanese Model in honor of Tony Pann. This is the cold air spilling in behind the weekend storm. Although this is a long shot, it does indicate a chance of it ending as snow- at least just west and north as the cloud level temps (850mb) will be near freezing. Still, I think it's a little too early for 'stickage'

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