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Wednesday, October 8, 2008

A Big Change is Coming

A change for the weekend weather that is.... did you think I was going political?
This weekend is chock full of activities, with the most pressure on the Baltimore Marathon and it's 17,500 runners. My concern was this next front stalling off of the coast, and keeping us with a steady easterly wind. That would have kept us cloudy and cool. However, it looks like most of the overnight models are pushing this through in a hurry and allowing us to warm up with some weekend sun. While the weekend forecast (as of this morning), does push us into the 70s with sun, this is fog season. Any hint of milder air, will also come with some higher dew points. The longer nights, and nearby water from lakes and the Chesapeake Bay, will aid in the good chance of morning fog. I have opted out of the marathon this year, but some of my coworkers are running it, and seem to be fine with fog, as long as it's not raining or windy.

If you like that, then you will surely like the potential of seeing an 80F day on Monday as warm air surges ahead of the next storm.
Here you can see a developing cold front similar to the one heading our way now. This pattern does not tend to give us a lot of rain, but it will surge warmer air in ahead of it. In fact, I have often noticed the models undercut the warming by a few degrees, so my 82F for Monday, might be conservative. The only thing I see that could hinder my optimism, would be a SE wind off of the Atlantic. The 850mb (around 5,000ft) temperature map shows the warm air surging in, but the surface flow around High Pressure in Maine will bring a light wind either out of the south east or south west. This will be determined by the location of that High on Monday, and how fast that cold front is moving. If we have a south east wind, that could shave 5 or more degrees off of the thermometer, especially for places near the water.

Fall Foliage Picture of the Day:

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