Winter Folklore

I promised last week that I would start looking into some long range forecasts and even folklore. So for today, I ask you for your assistance. If you grow or buy local produce, check this one out and let me know:

Onion skins very thin,
Mild Winter coming in;
Onion skins thick and tough,
Coming Winter cold and rough.

Well, once this front passes today, it will set the stage for the first round of winter like air.... at least just to our north. It still looks good for Central NY to get snow tonight and Wednesday morning.
Here is the 500mb level map for Wednesday morning. This is an indication of the energy at around 18,000ft- that can translate to clouds and showers. While I don't think we will have the surface wind support, this does show a flow from Lake Ontario to northern MD. It might be possible that flurries fall in PA, but this will keep the clouds nearby and hold temperatures down deep in the 50s. The official NWS forecast has us sunny, but with this cold air aloft, it is hard to imagine that we will hold off the instability clouds. At least early in the day.


The weekend storm will most likely bring us rain. The question is will it warm up or stay chilly?
The GFS (what most forecasters in the US use), has the Low riding into the Ohio Valley- keeping us on the warmer side. Here is the Canadian Model, showing Saturday's storm with a surface Low Pressure forming over Virginia Beach. That is farther east of the GFS, and means more rain/colder temps for us. I have not completely translated this to the extended forecast, but I might start to drop my weekend forecast temperatures tomorrow morning. What is more interesting, is that the cold air behind this storm, might support flurries for us by Monday or Tuesday. If it still looks promising, I will hit more on that tomorrow.