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Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Mother's Day Dilema & Deadly Cyclone Nargis

Mother's Day Dilemma
Here is the Canadian model for Sunday. While yesterday looked dry, I mentioned on TV the chance of things changing since it was so far away. Now we look at a developing system approaching from the west and south, and may time out with a dry morning. The chance of rain will go up in the afternoon and evening- according to this model. There has been on overall shift towards a wet Mother's Day, but this is plenty of time to sort this out. Perhaps I just keep the chance of rain in, and if it turns out dry- we are all pleasantly surprised. Check back and I will follow this model all week.

Tropical Cyclone Nargis

First- Tropical Cyclones and Hurricanes are the same thing- just a different name in Cyclone Nargis has made headlines for the past few days, but information has been trickling out of the tight military controlled country. Estimates of 10,000 dead in just one town with hundreds of thousands homeless and without food and water.
While it may seem early in the year for a tropical system, June 1st is the beginning for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Here in the Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclones can occur in just about any month of the year. Below is a chart of the probability of Tropical Cyclones in this region throughout the year. You'll notice the year 'round activity, but a peak in May as the high sun angle acts on the warm water. Another peak in October and November as the sun angle slides south.
Here is a general idea of the location, and you'll notice that it is in the same area that was affected by the tsunami in 2004.

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