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Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Much Colder Weekend Brings Back Hopes of Snow Showers

This morning was clear and crisp, with many area thermometers dropping into the 20s. While sunshine should get us back to bear normal this afternoon, another shot of polar air is on the way.
A cold front on Thursday will be the first sign. How many times have I mentioned that the atmosphere likes to repeat itself? How many times do I repeat myself, should be a better question. I can get redundant, I know... especially in the season of snow. Here is the cold front on the NAM model for Thursday evening. The timing will be tough. Here, I've analyzed the cold front off of the coast, but the moisture lingering behind in the cold air. The initial shot of the front will may not have a lot of moisture with it. The station's Adonis model (which I posted on Examiner this morning) has the front with showers here in the morning. I looks a bit more like early afternoon. The timing will determine whether we get in that 48-50F range, or stay cooler. The back side, may allow the cold air to catch up with the showers, and mix some snow. The upper level energy lingers much farther west, but there is a chance that some get a mix tomorrow.

The weekend clipper type system looks much more impressive aloft than at the surface. Typically, if a clipper low pressure center passes to our north, we miss out. But this upper level (500mb) map for Saturday evening shows the trough in the jet stream, with the cold pocket of air swinging through. The black 'X' are the vort maxes, or strongest spins aloft, and will be overhead or south- which support showers for us. The purple line is the trough axis, which brings the final surge of cold air and energy. This will time out for Saturday evening into Sunday morning. I think a dusting to an inch in some heavy showers are possible. I will reporting from Snowshoe, WV- where just the elevation of 4848 feet will likely dump 3 to 6 inches or more. I'll have pictures to prove it, but maybe you will have some of you own as well.

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