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Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Hurricane Hanna Heading Here! Tropics Bubbling Up!

Hanna has been upgraded to Hurricane status overnight.
This is the GFM model I mentioned yesterday, still on target with a direct hit from Hanna on Saturday. While the storm be in a diminished form, much like Gustav is today... it will still pose a threat for flooding rain, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes.
While there is a lot of anxiety in this region since Isabel, this will not be the same storm. For starters, it's not nearly as strong, nor projected to get much stronger.
Secondly, the track takes it into South Carolina and brings it up from a longer trip over land. The wind flow may provide some surge of water up the Chesapeake, but both South and North Carolina will take the main hit with water. Check out the tracks below.

First the Spaghetti Plot here shows more models than yesterday bringing this into Maryland. The bulk do have it to our west, but these hurricane models don't handle mid latitude winds that well. The GFS (seen above, and here in red line) does have it much closer to Baltimore.
The National Hurricane Center Forecast Cone considers all models, and perhaps the bias I have mentioned all summer. There is a trend of these storms to ride to the right side of the forecast track... although Gustav did buck the trend. The range of possibilities is wide on Saturday, but below you can see the NHC forecast taking Hanna here Saturday!
As Gustave winds down to Tropical Depression status this morning, it still may dump anywhere from 6 to 20 inches of rain in the deep south. Yet Look at all the activity in the Atlantic below. I think the popcorn might be ready in the microwave.... Ike's track takes it into the Bahamas in TEN may be named Josephine by the end of today.

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