Huge Jump Up- Soon The Hard Fall Down

First: The morning TV poll on the right will continue until Friday. As of this morning, about 1/3 of the voters [my stats show this blog is read by thousands and picked up around the globe :-)] actually watch other channels in the morning. I hope to find out why after the poll ends...

Yesterday's tornado outbreak may end up a record for February.... 68 reports of touchdown and a fatality count that continues to climb...

While we are in a slight risk for severe weather today, it will take an hour or so of sun to put us over the top and destabilize the atmosphere for us. Otherwise severe weather is almost a guarantee from southern Virginia to Georgia.
This strong storm is responsible for our spring like morning. As I went through my morning routine, and analyzed where the warm front was, I just went about my biz. At BWI it was 45F at 4am, but jumped to 60F at 5am! 1 hour- 1 warm front. It continued to warm to 64F at 6am. So there went half of my morning graphics. I had to make a quick adjustment, but still on track for today. I still expect upper 60s, although any little peak of sun could push us to the record of 70F back in1938. Again the 1930s show it's face with record heat still on the books....

This will be a busy day, so I just want to touch on the big change on the way. Below are the 850mb maps showing air temperature at about 5,000Ft aloft. Analysis below the maps:

















I left this map alone- not drawing on it- to show you what jumps out on it's own. The Low and cold front to ourwest today allowing out temperatures to rise. Today's yellow shading shows 13C. compare that to morning surface temperatures around 65F

On Sunday morning, you can see another Low Pressure in the Gulf of Maine. It's cold air wrapping around and bringing us temperatures (shaded in red) of -22C. That alone is a 35 degree Centigrade drop. that could translate to surface air temperatures between 15F and 20F.

Super-Foggy-Tuesday!

Or should we call it Soup-er Foggy? There was a dramatic development of fog between 4am and 5:30am that dropped visibility down to less than 100 feet in spots.
I can not post our time lapse loop here (I am working on it), but below is Glen Burnie from AA Comm College. The lights are on Richie Highway. Visibility severely limited with some reports down to near ZERO:










This is a textbook result from a moist cool damp easterly wind about to be displaced by a warm front. Fog often get very thick as the warm air is about to move in. In fact the warm air moves in aloft first since it is less dense and rises. But it does take a while to move in at ground level.
These fronts are often slow, but the fog should lift as we remain mostly cloudy this afternoon. Temperatures will jump into the 60s, but the threat of rain linger through tomorrow- just before the cold air returns.

Importance of Numbers

17

The week of the 2007 season when the Giant last played New England, and almost won.
The starting yard line of the Giants Final Drive.
Plaxico Burress' Jersey number. He caught the winning touchdown.
The winning score: giants 17-Patriots 14
OK- yes I am a Giant's fan. I grew up in NY and had to keep it under wraps in B'more. I did actually pull for the Raven's in 2000 and my dad almost disowned me. Regardless, it was a great game, a short night of sleep and a lot of red eyes this morning.
Temperatures: I could not keep my number's theme away from the weather. It will warm to spring levels the next few days. I am forecasting 65F (that's more than 17 degrees above normal) on Wednesday- but that will be with strong wind and heavy rain. Thunderstorms possible as well with a strong cold front. The return of winter will bring us back into the 30s by the weekend the chance of snow showers. I am tired- so I'll have to just point you to my TV Graphics page for my maps.

TV Poll: I posted one on the right this weekend. I just wanted to see what your habits are an open a discussion of morning TV. While I get to see the traffic on my blog- that doesn't always correlate to the flawed ratings system. Neilsen has roughly 350 homes that represent nearly 1 million viewing homes in our area. Of course I would like to help boost our ratings, but I was curious as to how many of you that read this blog- don't watch our morning show. I should add an option for not watching morning TV- but can't change the poll while it's in session.
Just curious...

Groundhog's Day Irony

First a note: Yesterday's official rainfall at BWI was 1.80"- a record for the date, nd the highest 1 day total since October 26th, 2007 when we had 2.49" of rain. That was part of a 4 day total of 5.43" between Oct. 24-27. It's been a while since we had a good soaker. We reached 50F very briefly, but Salisbury hit 63F.

So today is a holiday celebration today actually started as a German Festival 122 years ago. Some consider it to be like Candlemass- the halfway point between the Winter Solstice and Spring Equinox. The original festival ended with the groundhog as the 'main course'... Yummmmmmm.



The irony I see today is that while it is cloudy, Phil 'saw his shadow'. I agree with the forecast of 6 more weeks of winter, but the method is a bit hazy. Perhaps the lights and glare of the camera flashbulbs did it. Either way, we are on the same page. I had mentioned last week of the return of the -NAO, or North Atlantic Blocking pattern that will shift the trough in the jet back along the east coast. There is a lot of energy in this La Nina pattern, and it's just a matter of positioning the jet to benefit us (for snow). While there may be another brief ice event as the next 'rain' storm arrives Monday. This should be our last warm up before the pattern shift. And it will be a warm- into the mid 50s.

Here is the GFS projection for next Friday evening. It does not look like the coastal it tried to spit out yesterday, but the first in a series of clippers as the northern branch of the jetstream becomes more active. This will bring us the chance of snow and lead the charge of dropping the jet farther south with each pass. It will be a week or two process, but I see our return beginning next week and lasting through then end of February at least. Go Phil- I'm with you!




Have you heard of the Golden Snowball Contest in NY State. It's a contest between 5 cities for the highest seasonal snowfall. The latest tally is listed below. As you can see, so far a normal season for them. Below is the National Climate Data Center Summary for snow this season.


Click here for the Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Report for 2007-2008 Season.

Refocus the Eyes on the Prize

So we had some morning ice, and a lot of kids/teachers got to sleep in. I didn't do enough to play up the heavy rain.
Here is the Doppler Estimated Rainfall up to 1pm. As of my noon show, the average was 1.00" to 1.50" for the day- and more on the way. Considering that we were down 2" for the year and down 9 inches last year- this is a good thing. I saw large puddle and huge muddy streams rolling down the hills near my house. There is also a lake that has been running very low- this will be a good thing.
As of 2pm- the highest rainfall amounts are listed below. Click here for the Maryland Extreme Weather List, that should be updated hourly. Final totals may jump over 2 inches... and at least bring us back to normal for the year.
Tomorrow we look to Punxsutawney, PA for Phil's Groundhog's Day Prediction. I have a feeling thanks to the clearing behind this storm, he will see his shadow. I'm sure I will see mine, and confirm my call for winter's return. Tomorrow I will show you a long range model call for a coastal storm that some bloggers are already buzzing about.

Feb's in With Freezing Rain

I am a little confused by what NWS is doing with their advisory naming. Last night's Freezing Rain Advisory is now A Winter Weather Advisory- but it's just freezing rain. It already confused my morning producer, and I am sure it might have for you as well. Here is the latest map. As of 4:30am- temperatures in Carroll and Baltimore County - north of Towson were 28-32F. Most of Howard was 30-32F with our station at Howard Comm College at 33F. Ice will be widespread north, and more patchy close to the beltway. Even ABC2 Studio temp is 31F as I write this. Just be careful!
Below is the Storm Prediction Center's risk for Severe Weather as well. It will be a busy day, so not much time here to write. However, when we get ice and cold air damming, it is hard to break that wedge. I would hold the best chance of anything severe farther south and east...perhaps near Salisbury as temps surge to near 60F there. The parameters are marginal, but there will be strong winds and fast rising air that could spawn an isolated 'spinner'. Otherwise, rain will be heavy this afternoon for all of us.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY

As expected the chance of ice was extended to surround the Baltimore Beltway north and west. So Baltimore County- north of Towson, and Howard County were added to the map below. The Winter Storm Watch is now a Freezing Rain Advisory. It should warm to above freezing during the morning- before the heavy stuff moves in..., but some places could see 1/4 inch accumulation. Otherwise, just slippery in the morning on the roads, especially it it starts just before sunrise. Say 3am-6am. That's no fun for anyone. At least I have something to talk about tomorrow morning....

No Snow, But Ice Just West

Here is the GFS depiction for Friday- Feb. 1st morning. The same High Pressure that is bringing us sun this morning, will depart in New England, and result in a North Easterly wind. This piles cold, dense air up against the mountains.
Depending on the wind direction, the cold air could get locked in place through the afternoon and lead to extensive ice problems. If the wind turns more due east- then it would bring in warmer air and turn all sections over to just rain faster. Note: Sleet bounces- Freezing Rain sticks and accumulates on trees, etc.
Timing will also be important. It looks like the arrival will be just before sunrise. If it arrives later that will allow some warmer air to work in and lower the ice threat. If it arrives earlier, then the ice could be more widespread and linger longer into the morning. While I think there may be some potential ice at the start in parts of Howard and Baltimore Counties, the best chance for it to linger will be farther north and west. As the storm cranks into Ohio, it should pull the warm front through central MD and bring temps up in to the lower 40s.

Windy Wednesday

Plain and simple- It will be windy! I noticed a trend at my old house- that we often had strong winds on Wednesday. Essentially it was Garbage Day and my cans would end up down the street. This is also the type of day that small dogs turn into kites... No- but you will feel it while driving. Especially if you drive a minivan or SUV.
This is all a result of that strong storm in the mid-west that caused Blizzard conditions in Iowa yesterday.


This morning- temperatures took a hard core dive behind this storm. Here are the 6am temperatures, showing a hint of our downturn later on. The net result of this chill, will be colder than expected. Temperatures will drop this afternoon, and continue overnight until we settle in the teens Thursday morning. This cold air may lock in as the next storm races in. The timing of the next event will be crucial, but close enough to be watched. There is a chance the cold air gets dammed in with a NE wind. So as the next storm brings in it's warm moist air aloft, a great set up for an ice storm. While I think our ice would be just a morning thing and give way to warming- it could be a big deal just north in central PA. Either way, a chance we you teachers and kids might get some extra sleep Friday morning- stay tuned.

Somber Anniversary of Challenger Explosion

Since I way 'under the weather' and took the day off- this will be brief.
Yesterday was the 22nd anniversary of the Challenger Explosion. Here is the visible satellite image- with the explosion debris cloud circled in yellow.

The Challenger exploded 73 seconds after lifting off from Cape Canaveral on Jan. 28, 1986, killing all seven people on board. This included New Hampshire teacher Christa McAuliffe.

It was determined that the cause was the failure of O-ring seals in the solid rocket booster as well as NASA’s organizational culture, which ignored the cold weather warnings.

A sure signature of cold weather on a satellite like this is the distinct line of clouds off shore - like lake effect clouds. The cold air interacting with much warmer water eventually results in low level condensation. More on the Challenger Mission can be found at the NASA web site.

Here is a video of the weather related to the disaster:

Outlook Promising- Despite Warmup This Week

It may have been a waste of cold air the past two weeks with very little snow, but we are not done yet. The animation of the Northern Hemisphere shows the 500mb pattern for the past month. The USA is the bottom center section. Look to the right of center (north pole), which is Greenland and the North Atlantic. The blue shows the troughs and old air we have had the past few months. The red shows the increased heights- ridges and warmer air- early in the month- and trying to return again. More below:

Here you can see the graphical breakdown of the NAO- North Atlantic Oscillation. Negative numbers represent a blocking pattern which results in troughs and colder air on the east coast. The GFS forecast shows a this week's positive phase, but a negative phase developing in February. We will be warming up this week, but it's a good thing. The pattern needs to re-establish itself. The recent trough just wasn't producing a good storm track for us. Anything that generated to our south skipped off of the Carolina coast and could not turn the corner north and hit us (like some of us want). Although the Delmarva did get clipped this week. So the forecast for a positive NAO is just for a week, before a return to the cold phase. That will allow another shot of polar air- to set up what will hopefully be more favorable. There is a lot of energy in this La Nina winter- we just need it to reach us the right way. Remember that 8 0f the top 20 Baltimore snowstorms (about 12 inches or more) occurred in February. So while we range from mid 40s to near 50s this week, it's not all bad.

Shave and Snow

Yesterday's snowfall explained is in the the post below..
First: Thanks for the support about the snow beard in the first place. One last time- let me explain. I pledged not to shave until we got 2 inches of snow- to show my confidence that winter was not done. Then it snowed, but the online poll endorsed the idea to leave it 1 more day and shock the parents. That was last weekend. ABC2 wanted me to shave live on TV Monday- but the shaver did not show up. Guys- help me out here. It's not easy to shave a dry beard. So I cut most of it- but left the goatee (or Van Dyke- whatever it's called) just for the end of the day. The beard was gone... My wife who put up with the beard, actually liked it. Then I got dozens of emails saying I should keep it. Guys- what would you do? Well, after just a few complaints that I did not keep my word I decided to end the shave it all off on the air this morning. Denise Dorey helped out- and the video may show up online later today. So it's gone, I kept my word to all- and now I begin to grow another one, at least for February.
Today is the anniversary of the 14-18 inches of snow we got in 2000. It was a storm I am proud to say that was missed by the National Weather Service- but I caught the day before. The new mainframe super computers were just online and had the storm skipping off of the coast, but instead it turned the corner and slammed us. Blizzard conditions with wind gusts to 45mph and 'thunder snow' dominated the day. That was part of the 10 day winter that year- which brought us 23 inches total at BWI.
I was working at WBAL at the time, but below is one of my favorite live shots the day after this storm- digging a car out on Falls Road: For the record: Tony Pann still lives in the area- and works at Channel 9 in DC.

Afternoon Update: A Little Explaining to do...

The Eastern Shore got it! Just like the NAM I posted this morning (below), this regional radar from 1:30pm was almost right on. So, why did we miss it? Again? There is an answer for everything and at this point, I am still trying to figure that out. My only guess now is that as the precipitation enhanced thanks to that vort max and rising air on the Eastern Shore, there was subsidence or sinking air around it. That is what we got, which inhibits cloud formation- and we got the sun to return.

Here is the web version of StormCenter Doppler from earlier afternoon. You can see the distinct line of snow on the Eastern Shore. It developed earlier than I expected, but also moved out earlier. That vort max I highlighted is most likely what did it, but it moved through much faster and farther east to do anything for the west side of the bay.
Below are Weathernet Camera snapshots of the snow in Easton and Ocean City. You can see the feilds in Easton covered with the 1-2 inches expected. Ocean City got more than they expected. That is the beach covered with snow, and a very gray Atlantic Ocean in the background.

Snow Showers- More - Eastern Shore!

Just a shift east, and the beaches may win this round of snow. At the bottom of this post you can see the Snow Advisory Map. The models have pulled back on any accumulated precipitation- but that doesn't mean we are done. This reminds me of what we had back on Jan. 14th- a snow burst. In fact you can see that blog on the right- look for the label (vort max). It could look impressive in spots and coat the ground with less than 1 inch. It all depends on timing and true position of the vort max. Forget the cold front from the west, and the small coastal to our south- here is the NAM 500mb ( roughly 18,000 feet) map. This shows the spin or energy in the atmosphere that can enhance shower. First, a spin at this level will create rising air from the ground and help clouds develop. The timing of late afternoon or early evening acts on any late day heating to enhance it as well. So if you are watching the radar- it might not look impressive most of the day. This feature will enhance the coastal system, but that will be pushed offshore.
Basically- all of us have about the same chance of snow showers- yet the Delmarva may be in the position to have that last longer into the evening, at it will be closer to the of shore Low Pressure. With the chance of 1-2 inches there, this Snow Advisory has been issued for Queen Annes, Talbot, and Caroline Counties. At 12:30pm Kent and Wicomico were added. Watching the current radar- I would suggest a 2-3 inch range for those counties..

Something out of Nothing

This is a rare 'winter rainbow' as seen on the Magothy River Tuesday. We can thank Tom in Severna Park for this picture... but we should also thank the rain showers (instead of the snow expected) that produced this.
It was lunch time when it became apparent that the strong southerly winds had succeeded in two thing: It boosted our temperatures above freezing quickly, and the precipitation broke up crossing the mountains.
Analyzing this morning's ice on the south side in AA county and the Eastern Shore- I can only suggest that rain their last night followed by clearing did the trick. yet Baltimore and Howard County was ironically warmer in the mid 30s. This may have been due to wet ground to our south- evaporating in the clearing- which dropped the temperature just below freezing. This is the same reason you feel colder after a shower or out of the pool. Evaporative Cooling.
So while we enjoy this image, I look ahead to tomorrow with trepidation. Another chance of snow showers is on the way for Thursday- but there is a huge discrepancy among my daily favorite models. This makes me a little hesitant to pull the trigger. Below are model forecast maps all for the same time frame: Thursday Evening...

While the NAM (show here) is most appealing with over 4 inches of snow, it is is the only model with any accumulation. well, at least with text output I can decipher. It is most impressive with this developing coastal Low and enhancement from another cold front. The Canadian also shows some wrap around by Thursday evening- with an estimated inch or two. Below you can see the NGM with very light precipitation- which justifies snow showers or flurries. GFS has almost nothing of interest, and has the best track record this season. Of course these are the overnight runs. If anything changes, I should know by our noon show.

Just a Nuisance

First it was the computer bug at work yesterday. I was unable to log into my system after my lunch break, so I could not update this blog...Yet the time lapse of last week's snow is still below.
Second: This Advisory. 10AM-4PM
CANCELED As of 12:30PM
A little snow and sleet, perhaps ending as rain. It will be light, but could be enough to be slippery. A Nuisance! Considering that we have been in the deep freeze, it should be easier for anything to stick- as opposed to last Thursday when it took a heavy burst of snow to cool down the pavement. While I think the schools should stay in session- it may be something a knee jerk reaction could prove otherwise.
It may get slick- but this does not look to be any more than a coating for most of us, however sometimes that is all it takes. The computer guidance shows a range of just a coating to at most just over an inch. If anyone gets much more than 1 inch of snow- I will be surprised. Likely that even if there is a little enhancement- it will be sleet and rain at that point. If you notice me covering my words- that's because after 10 years in Baltimore- "what I might consider light could be enough to fright".

Now that I am back in the system, I will post later this morning about the next chance of a storm (this weekend). I am waiting for the morning model package to come out.

A Huge Dissapointment!

Where to begin? I must restrain myself, even here- but I am not happy! Basically, no shave on TV this morning. There are things out of my control- and this was one of them. I was planning on shaving this weekend, but I was convinced to do it live on TV this morning. Well, it turns out the person who was suppose to do it- will not be here. I found out when I got to work this morning, and don't have a razor with me! Guys- help me out here. Would you want to shave your face without a shower anyway- unless a professional is doing it? So basically- I thank you for your support, but apologize for not being able to follow through with the rest. I would have put myself up for the comic humiliation- but don't even have the means to shave myself at work. The beard is coming off today! I am getting quite used to it, but I made a promise and have to stick with it. If anything- I was quite comfortable this morning with the insulation. The coolest thing about this was that some of you have decided to try and grow a beard to, or women have told me they encouraged their husbands to grow their facial fur...
There will be more snow tomorrow. When I get a chance to "cool down' on this frigid morning- I'll get back to the outlook. In the meantime, while most of the USA is in the grips of the deep freeze, read this story to see how China has had it's worst winter in 20 years.

Here is the timelapse video of last week's snow I promised:

The Chill is on!

While it looks like yesterday's extrapolation from GFS looks to be too cold, it will be frigid. Partially thank the fact that most of our snow melted, and we will likely end up in the mid 20s instead of upper teens in central Maryland today. However, we can expect some single digits temps in the morning. Good thing it's a holiday and a lot of people will get to sleep in. Here you can see this morning's temperatures. I wanted to highlight some spots. First Football: The 3pm Game New England will not be too bad. Boston's 28F this morning however was the same temperature as Pensacola, FL. New Orleans was down to 34F. Note: Atlanta Georgia picked up about 1 inch of snow- but a lot melted on warm ground.
This evening game in Green Bay, WI will be the dangerous one. This morning's temperature ranged from -15F to -20F in northern Wisconsin. Kickoff temperature will be around 0F, with -15F wind chill. That means frostbite can develop in less than 15 minutes. While it might be fun to watch (the Giants win) on TV, it will be dangerous for players and fans.
Tomorrow the beard gets shaved.... but winter is just getting started. Just a quick peak at Tuesday from the Canadian. A cold front will try to reinforce our cold air, and bring us some showers. Right now it looks like snow and or rain showers... but may have the potential of an inch of snow. A series of cold fronts will move through during the week, with a chance of a larger short wave storm next Sunday. More on this Monday.

Arctic Blast, Close Shave

I made a video blog announcing how ABC2 wants me to shave on TV Monday morning. That is still in yesterday's post below. I made a promise (for the kids) and it will come off. Over the past week, I have been talking about the certainty of this arctic air. What was uncertain was the handling of Thursday and Saturday (today snow). First, here is the GFS Surface and precip accumulation for this evening. I highlighted what I mentioned on TV yesterday, it looks like a better chance farther south. My old maps are in the TV Graphics Page. Looking at this morning's radar, there may be some flurries and light snow during the day, but here the GFS indicates any measurable accumulation on the lower/eastern shore. Baltimore is marked with a yellow X to show the arctic front that may provide some light snow, but push the coastal farther east. If things change, I am on call to work this evening- so I'll get to talk about it then...Let's hope not- I've got family in town I'd like to stay with...
Below is the text output that shows three important points.

1. Forecast accumulation is .01 inches
2. Sunday afternoon temperatures could stay below at 18F or lower!
   
3. Wind (measured in knots) will be gusting 20-30mph. Wind Chill will be near ZERO!

BZzzzzzzzzzz... Shave Live on TV

Afternoon Announcement: I will take pics of the family reaction over the weekend and post them as well...



It's almost time. We have a busy morning, but the poll at the right might explain the delay in the shave. I am amazed by the response from many of you. Quite a few want me to keep it, others just to get my parents. Seriously, at this stage with a young kid- it's all about him. I was never a showboat, and this may be my last shot. So for those of you that think I am backing out- I am not. We did get the needed snow, and my promise will be followed through. Soon! ABC2 is working on the best way to share it.

Saturday's storm is not looking like our shot. Better chance for the Eastern Shore. I will try to post (if I can) this evening.
In the meantime, check out my Snow Page. I had faith in the flakes, and tried to encourage the kids that winter was not done. In fact check this out:
BWI Snow:

• Yesterday: 2.4"
• Season: 7.2"(1.8" above normal)
• Normal: 5.4"

The Snow was pretty close to the forecast map (see yesterday's post below). However Anne Arundel County got a surprise with more snow. I had mentioned on TV yesterday that we were aware they were not included in the Advisory. This was based on the temperatures expected to warm up just enough and turn them over to sleet and rain earlier (after 1-2 inches of snow). Instead, the burst of heavy snow arrived nearly at the start and helped to drag down colder temps from the clouds and hold it in long enough. Rates were 1-2 inches per hour.
I just captured some of the time lapse videos of the snow I showed on TV yesterday. I will post them here this weekend.