Tornado Watch Until 7pm

While the chance of a tornado is slim, the winds will exceed 50mph in many spots as the cold front passes through. This is all about the energy in the atmosphere as we have a dramatic transition of air masses. Look at the 1pm temperatures here. Baltimore 73F, while Detroit is 37F. Talk about role reversal.
Follow the warnings, radar, and lightning tracker on my Storm Page. I will have more on Examiner.com tomorrow. Snow is on the way!

The Skinny on the Rain and Snow This Weekend

We've already seen nearly an inch or rain (or more in some spots). The HPC rainfall update now has an additional 1-2 inches from central Maryland to the coast. This is along the lines of what I mentioned earlier this week.
The heavy rain will be here in two more parts:
Tonight through Saturday morning.
Saturday afternoon: A cold front with the chance of a thunderstorm mixed in.

Then the cold air spills in in a few waves Sunday through Tuesday. Each will have a piece of energy, short wave (or vort max), that should carry snow showers over the mountains and through central Maryland.

It has been a long day, so I am just going to post some charts below to make my case. I am using the NAM model showing the 500mb vortivity (spin), and thickness between 1000mb and 500mb. The '540' line usually represents where the snow or freezing line would set up.
Basically, I'd be surprised it we don't get snow here by Monday or Tuesday. Sunday morning, and afternoon each have a shot. The last image is Monday Evening. This one looks like a clipper type system. A bit more widespread, and the cold air will already be established. This has the best chance to coat the ground or more in the northern/western burbs... Stay tuned.

The Developing Storm and Chance of Snow

As I mentioned on Examiner.com this morning, the models and my resulting forecast changed a bit after the morning package came in yesterday. On that note, I am going to wait until I get the new data to make my post here today. Please check back. In the meantime, the HPC rainfall forecast has gone up from yesterday. I had said that a shift in speed or track may double our totals... well we are getting close to it.

I have kept the regional radar at the bottom of this post, but you can get it on my TV Graphics tab above.

Below is my model analysis, but some of the maps are not easy to read. I have cut out our region, along with highlighting Maryland in a yellow circle.

Late Morning UPDATE:
Now that the models are trickling in, I can see the development, or perhaps over excitement of cold air in the computer models. There is a ton of information to sort through, but what I try to do here is provide the best graphical display. I will try to keep this short, but sweet.
The NGM (here), shows the next development for Saturday morning. This looked heavier on the NAM model, but the rain that moves on late Friday, will be here on Saturday morning, but perhaps break into showers during the day. The arctic boundary to our west will turn rain to snow in Chicago. That white line shows the freezing line. Could be interesting football weather in Michigan mid day.
The NAM shows low pressure slowly passing overhead, and keeping steady rain around through Saturday evening. The low in the Great Lakes looks stronger here, and the band of precipitation behind the freezing line would translate to heavy snow from Chicago to South Bend, IN, and Michigan. The way this wraps up, will pull cold air farther south behind the storm. That will arrive on Sunday- and settle in on Monday.


Snow Next Week?
Here is my personal favorite- the Canadian (from Environmental Canada) showing the surface and upper level maps behind this storm on Monday. On the left, the surface map shows what is left of the Low Pressure Center, just spinning itself out. It is stacked aloft, and circulating cold air around it, while drifting east of the Great Lakes. The black line is the 'freezing' line that is well to our south and moving off of the coast. It does not guarantee freezing temperatures for us, but it supports snow development in the clouds. The image on the right, shows the upper level chart at 500mb. This is the energy needed to generate showers, and there is a lot of it. The push of arctic air moves in during the day, keeping us in the 40s, with an afternoon rain or snow shower. The X in Ohio is the second push with the core of the cold air. That will arrive on Tuesday. This is why I put rain or snow showers for Monday, but snow showers or flurries on Tuesday. Usually the best chance for this is in the hilly terrain north and west of Baltimore, I will fine tune this we get closer. Just showers- but a start and sign of the changing season.

Complex Storm Comes in Pieces

This morning, I was a little concerned about the rain that showed up on the local radar just south in Virginia. I had expected the rain to not make it this far east until tonight or tomorrow morning.
So, this is one of those days to plan for the worst and hope for the best.
As the storm develops, we will have moderate to heavy rain roll in on Thursday. The will be compounded by the strong southeasterly winds that develop.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center's forecast for rain shows the heavy amount just off of the coast. This is in line with the coastal Low I mentioned yesterday- shooting off to the east.
We are on the edge of the 1 inch rain forecast, but any delay in the cold front moving, or stronger coastal development could hold up the forward speed. That could double our rainfall.






Here is the Adonis model wind plot for Thursday afternoon. The longer arrows indicate winds in the 30 mph range or higher. That is along the coast and Delmarva. It will feed more moisture into this storm, and make for a nasty and raw day.
If you have not gone to my new blog on Examiner.com, today I have Part 2 of my Winter Outlook series. There is also video of snow making in Snowshoe, WV.

Chilly Veterans Day. End Of Week Storm Update

This morning, we bottomed out with a low of 29F at BWI. That is the first time we were in the 20s since March 24th when the temperature hit 27F. The next storm, is still complicated, as it looks like it will go through a transition or shift of energy 3 times between now and Friday. This may not be a major storm, but it could spread out into two separate moderate storms overlapping. The importance is whether it sets the stage for the upcoming season. I follow the philosophy that our winter pattern often develops in November, and will repeat itself many times over the winter. So the track and behavior of the cold air with these storm tracks can be crucial in an active season. It may be stormy, but the track will determine whether it's snow or rain for us. But that is speculation, NO SNOW with this storm....

First it surface Low in Kansas this morning. that has already wound itself up, and shifting it's energy southeast (occluding). The new low will develop over Missouri, and head into the Great Lakes. It's the trailing cold front that will be out focus, tapping into the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. It the upper level energy in the jet stream that will help develop another surface low near New Orleans. So while the rain will look closer on the radar tomorrow, and spread clouds our way, it's south-not west we have to look for our rain.
Thursday will be our wet day, at least how it looks now. The ADONIS model we use on TV shows moderate rain just to our south by Thursday morning, on the way in.
This looks more like and over running event. That is the rain spreading way out ahead of the storm, and bumping into the dry air we have in place. While that would give hours of virga (false rain on radar), we should have an strong easterly wind to add moisture to the air, and I suspect it will be a wet Thursday.



Friday is the day to watch:
The GFS shows rain spreading in from the south, and I have analyzed a developing Low off of the South Carolina Coast. It looks a lot like the last storm. The model shows moderate rain regenerating itself in more of a conveyor belt along a stalled front in the mountains. That set up would keep us wet through Saturday. Notice the strong 988mb Low pressure in Canada. That will be the source of a cold air push behind this storm.. This is not a bad idea, since the low will spin out a day before if builds the cold air and drops south. If it pushes sooner, we could kiss the stalled front goodbye.



The Canadian shows more of a coastal low scenario on the coast. Here is the surface Low in western Maryland on Friday morning, with the larger 'cold core' Low in Minnesota. That is farther south than the GFS, and supports the energy transfer to the coast- ahead of the 'Canadian Cold Air Push'.
The heavy rain is laid out on Friday morning, just off of the coast, but the analysis give me the impression of a coastal low forming near the Georgia/South Carolina border. That would likely push off of the coast, and cut our rain off during the day Friday. A much different expectation giving the same starting point as the GFS.
This looks a lot more like the last two storms, and I have to go with persistence. So given that, let's carry the Canadian a little farther into the weekend. I like this models, because it does perform better in the winter with coastal storms, and it has a better resolution with cold air in Canada.

Here is the Canadian model for Sunday Afternoon. The blue line is the infamous 540 (dm) line of thickness, that translates to a rain/snow line with storms. This also shows the push of cold air surging in by Saturday night. The upper level energy will support heavy Lake Effect Snow, and may bring us the chance of flurries or snow showers by Sunday afternoon. I did not put it on my TV forecast, since I do have a tendency to be bias towards snow. I wanted to wait another day to see if this set up holds over the GFS. One thing for sure, this will push cold air down to the Gulf Coast, and overnight temperatures near freezing could reach northern Florida.
That is a lot to digest, and just two different models. Hopefully there will be more agreement on way or another with today's models. Stay tuned.....

A Storm This Week?

First we start off the week with an upper level trough and core of the cold air left over from last week's blizzard. That is what will hold us in the 50s, but also help to carry a partly to mostly cloudy view our way. Here is the NAM showing the 500mb vorticity. The green and yellow essentially highlight the base of the trough and cold air. That is the instability that allows morning sun to develop clouds by mid day and perhaps overcast into the afternoon. Some down slope comes into play, and will allow more sun around the bay and eastern shore.




So what's up for the rest of the week?

Last week, the idea was to develop the next short wave (surface storm) and bring it in behind this trough on Wednesday. Over the weekend, that fell apart, but Friday was looking more like the wet day for us. So if it happens, now? There is a split in what is expected...just look at the Friday morning maps below.
The Canadian is developing a coastal storm, but pulling it just far enough east that we get clipped or just missed. That looks a lot like what just happened last week. Of course, that also brings up the issue that the models have not had a good run of tracking coastal storms, so this would be up in the air. Especially 5 days out.




The GFS is more along the lines of the jet stream digging deeper into the central plains, but not clearly identifying any surface storm. In fact there is no indication of anything off of the east coast for this same time period. However, the leading end of the trough, shows a strong southerly flow taping into Gulf of Mexico moisture, and unlike the Canadian, is more of a wet scenario for the entire east coast.
The UNISYS analysis of the precipitation shows the moderate rain for Friday morning. This does hint at some circulation near North Carolina, but the timing is way

Winter Outlook From Wednesday Nov 5th (Examiner has tech problems)

This post is what you should have seen on my Examiner paste. I am sorry for the technical problems
You voted on this winter season’s snowfall and some scientists believe it’s the beginning of ‘Colder’ Climate Change…

Every November, as it gets cooler, the barrage of questions and even suggestions on the winter season pop up. I have never hid the fact that I love snow, so forgive me as I write from that perspective. Besides, I’m a weather guy- I should love weather!

According to the small poll I held, many of you are expecting a modest winter. This is a pretty good bell shaped curve with the emphasis on above average snowfall. If we end up with 35 inches at BWI-Marshall, that would be nearly double the 30 year average. The ambitious 60+ inch group of 4 are expecting something to happen that has only been recorded one other time- but those 13 years ago. As for the pessimistic group in the under 15 inch range, that is what the past two seasons have brought us.

'There's a little black spot on the sun'... or none?

The sun has the biggest impact on our weather. That should be a no brainer since it’s our source of heat and energy. But it’s hard to get past the overload of media stories focusing on ‘something else’. My purpose is not to dispute pollution, but I do argue that there are many factors that impact our global climate. The scientific community has a large following of this philosophy as well. Basically the theory is that sunspots (storms with cooler temperatures on the surface of the sun) actually result in more solar energy shooting off and reaching earth. The result is a warm up for the planet when it’s active, and a cool down when it’s calm. I have paid a lot of attention to the sunspots over the past few decades. In 2004, it was reported that the sunspot activity was at a 6000 year record. This year it has been almost silent. What gives? That is the million dollar question. The last time there was this little activity was back between 1645 and 1712. It was called the Maunder Minimum and corresponds to the 'little ice age'. I have posted a few stories below....

On this information alone, it would be easy to think not only should we have a colder than normal winter, but many more to come. Many of the Almanacs point to the sun as their source of forecasting, and I will touch on some of them next week. There are many.. But there are many factors influencing the weather as well. This year we add a potential La Nina in the Pacific which is notorious for cold spells in the Eastern US. Add in the Pacific Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and various other factors, I will discuss at the end of the month. All leading to above normal snowfall potential. Personally, I have tried to take my bias out of the mix, and believe that we are in for a cold and stormy winter. Remember, that there is a wide range of snow in any year in Maryland, and all it takes is one good coastal to dump and blow out any expectations. We can also have a lot of storms that either hug the coast and turn us to rain, or jump out to sea and miss us. That is all part of the pattern to study. Stay tuned...

For more on this Sunspot activity, check out this link to New Scientist Space.

Fox News has a report from scientist saying Forget Global Warming, Prepare for a new Ice Age.

A story yesterday in Investors Business Daily pointed out that the planet has been cooling since 1998, ice growth had begun in the northern Hemisphere last year, and parts of the Southern Hemisphere have already experienced some extreme conditions in their winter. These links may take you away, so please come back for the rest below.

I encourage your comments, thoughts and questions. Please use the section below and we'll see where the discussion goes...

Updated! Non Tropical Coastal- New Named Storm in Caribbean

This looks like a few storms we have had since late summer. Today, a north wind brings us 'warmer' air. This storm is yet another sign of all of the energy off of the coast, that may play into my theory of a wild, snowy winter. More on this storm, along with a recap of my Wednesday Winter Outlook can be found on my examiner page. I also wrote a little tribute to one of my heroes, Michael Crichton. He passed away yesterday.

I can't believe I made a post this morning and erased all of my tropical stuff. Needless to say, there is a new Tropical Storm in the Caribbean. Paloma is the 16th named storm of 2008. The season lasts through November 30th, so this is not too rare. It is expected to reach Category 2 Hurricane status as it crosses Cuba this weekend. That country has already had a rough year. Fay, Gustav, and Ike were enough to rip a few paths in an already impoverished nation. This will not help matters, but a reminder how some seasons tend to lock into a pattern or favored areas. Remember Florida in 2004. Hey, some winters do the same thing, and the atmosphere likes to repeat itself.


Remember that I will be writing most of my daily blogs on Examiner.com, but return here for more detailed model breakdowns for big storms.

Winter Examiner Poll

Here is one of the few cases early voting can be good and fair. As I shifted my blog to Examiner.com, there are still some limitations. I am using this spot for a Winter Season Snow Poll - At the right. What do you you think about this season? The poll will end Wednesday morning, and I will post the results on Examiner. I will also spend at least 1 day each week on the seasonal forecasts. Check back for Wednesday Winter Outlooks.
The chart at the right is of a wild 10 year period we just had with the top 1 and 2 and bottom 3 and 4 seasons on record. We've had dramatic swings in both directions.
Note:
2005-2006 = 19.5"
2006-2007 = 11.0"
2007-2008 = 8.5"

Moving to Examiner.com

After nearly 4 years of blogging, and the past year on the improved Blogger set up- I have made the move to be a Baltimore Weather Examiner. It has been in the works for a few months, and hopefully today to partnership will be a flawless transition. Please check out my Examiner Page. The link will open in this window, but may hold the banner from my web site. If it's too busy, cut and past this into your browser:
http://www.examiner.com/x-1586-Baltimore-Weather-Examiner
If you are here for the first time, please scroll down and you'll get an idea of how I cover my storm forecasting and blogging. Please contact me and let me know what you think..
Note: Keep this link handy. I will continue to post model analysis here, as well as days when I have many images to share.
In honor of my transition, and new layout, I wanted to post some pictures Jim Schuyler recently sent me. Above is a great fall shot from Prettyboy Reservoir in Baltimore County. Below was last weekend and a perfectly timed shot some kyakers at Great Falls, VA.

October Snow: The Models Show a Chance This Afternoon Closer To Home

Guns and Roses sang November Rain, but should someone write a song about October Snow? Even the pumpkins were shocked. Last week I mentioned a snowstorm I experience on Halloween at Cornell (Ithaca, NY), but it's still a rarity for them too. Lots of schools were closed and power went out from the heavy snow and high winds.
I have posted the Snow Totals on my story with abc2news.com

Some of the snow amounts over 1 foot extended into the Poconos of northestern PA. Even western Maryland got in on the act.

Here is a snapshot from this morning, showing the snow on the ground at Frostburg State University. Our floor director told me this morning that her daughter went to school there just so she could have more snow. That's a woman after my own heart.






Here is a new, cleaner view of the Upper Level Energy at 500mb (around 18,000ft). This shows the potential for showers to carry over the mountains and reach central Maryland this afternoon and evening.
I've analyzed the wind direction off of the Lakes...and circled the vort max in the orange shading over central Maryland. This is the spin of energy tat should carry the showers over the mountains. The Number [540] is 5400m and represents the thickness of the atmosphere which translates to a layer of near freezing air aloft. Colder air contracts and is less thick in between certain layers.
While downtown temperatures should be around 47F, I expect lower 40s or colder up north near the PA. So the Hereford Zone of Baltimore County and Carroll County should have snowflakes mixed in, thanks to colder cloud temperatures. A burst may occur close to dark, that could coat the grass, but the ground is still relatively warm, so the roads will be fine.
Tomorrow and Halloween we get back to more sun, and a gradual warm up.

Surpise Storm: Nor'Easter Bring Taste of Winter

Yup, this one caught me off guard! I was not alone, just look at the historic World Series game last night in Philadelphia. The first time 'ever' a game was suspended due to rain. They did not plan for it, but at least the score was tied when the game was stopped. They will 'try' to resume it today, but I have my doubts. The rain should stop tonight, but the strong winds may force the delay another day. Besides, do the Phillies want to potentially win with a sparse crowd?. I claim to be a step ahead of the models... and I think I was- but then I got trampled. I had showers for our north side, and during my update yesterday afternoon, I tried to explain why it expanded south. Well this 'spin' developed into a potent storm off of the coast overnight. This rapid development, with a pressure drop over the 1mb per hour to classify a 'bomb'. This has resulted in a dramatic wind field as it pulls cold air into the center. That is why we expect gusts up to 45mph today. Even as the storm pushes farther away, the winds will continue to whip up. This Advisory map tells the true story. Wind Advisories (tan) all the way up the coast. Winter Weather Advisories (light blue) in the Poconos and Catskills. Even A Winter Storm Warning (purple) for parts of Central NY.

Here is the snowfall forecast for NY, that may make your mouth water....well mine at least.
As the cold air spills in and turns the rain to all snow this morning, Lake Ontario will also enhance the snow, especially as the storm pulls away and the wind can do it's thing.
Binghamton will have a dramatic range of 2 inches to nearly a foot from their western towns to the eastern mountains. The mountains over 3,000 and 4,000 feet in the Catskills along with the Tug Hill Plateau- east of lake Ontario could easily see well over 1 foot of snow. I can't wait to see the pictures.
The final surge of energy will arrive tomorrow with more showers developing, and some could mix in snowflakes north and west of the beltway. That does include Baltimore and Carroll Counties.

Afternoon Update: Surprise Rain- Is This a Sign?

I had rain in my forecast this morning, but it was just for the northern areas. I did not expect this line to extend as far south as it did. However, the upper level maps this morning, did support it. Here is the 500mb map from the NGM showing the vorticity or energetic 'spin' aloft. This allows not only for enhancement of any showers in the afternoon, but surviving the trip across the mountains. That is exactly what it did, as seen on this radar snapshot from 2pm.

So is this a sign? A sign in this pattern that anything heading our way having a better chance of developing and maxing out. Well, here is the 500mb ma fro Wednesday morning. The next vort max, which essentially is the final push of cold air with this upper level Low, will pass just to our south. The vort max itself is seen in red, and this position is maximum potential for us in central Maryland. Combine this will cold air aloft, and my call from last week may still hold. Perhaps even more so with rain and snow showers not only in the mountains, but we could have the first flakes close to home by lunch on Wednesday. My fingers are crossed. Are yours? If you go to the Seasonal Tab on my full web site, you will see a new page I developed with Ski Bonk. Feel free to scroll around and get in the snow mood.

Here is the long range map from the Japanese Model in honor of Tony Pann. This is the cold air spilling in behind the weekend storm. Although this is a long shot, it does indicate a chance of it ending as snow- at least just west and north as the cloud level temps (850mb) will be near freezing. Still, I think it's a little too early for 'stickage'

Shaking Things Up... And Down Under

The earthquake map here shows the results from the last 7 days, but a lot of activity took place over the weekend. The one yellow dot in southern PA, was in York County. This is the second on this month. While it was officially reported as a magnitude 2 on the Richter Scale, it does remind us that although not as vibrant as the San Andreas Fault, there is still seismic activity in the east.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands also had it's second shock of the month.



Australia enters it's spring season and this beautiful full arch rainbow is one of the few promising things the Ausies have seen.

Last Wednesday (10/22), Sydney had it's coldest day in 30 years with a high of 58F.

The Blue hills of New South Whales had snow for only the 5th time in 50 years of record keeping.

North in Brisbane and Coffs, severe storms brought lightning and large hail. The image here with the flip flops is my favorite.

Thanks to Charlie Wilson for this information and images from the Sydney Morning Herald.

More on our chance of midweek flurries and another hit early next week, on an evening post. So please, check back then.

Winter Outlook: Old Farmers Almanac

My post I promised got erased, but I wanted to get this on for the weekend. I am compiling a comparison of all of the winter outlooks and will have that page ready soon. Here is the cold and snowy look from the OLD Farmer's Almanac. They also have an interesting article on Global Cooling you can view here. More on that later. Gotta run

Rain, Rain, On The Way. It Will Be Here Saturday.

That large storm I mentioned yesterday, is still on target to make for a wet start to the weekend. Here is the generic 1-3 day rainfall forecast from HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center). These are mainly generated from the GFS model. You can see the heavy rain expected to our north and west, while Baltimore falls in the 'near 1 inch' range.
Here is the break down for Baltimore from a few of the models:

GFS: 0.85"
NGM: 0.41" (through Sat evening)
NAM: 1.37"

So a wide range to pick from, but a solid shot of a soaker. The models are calling for us to hit the low 60s, but i have a hard time expecting us to warm up that much with an easterly flow, and the cool damp air already in place. If this was a winter set up, we would be calling this a 'cold air dam', and have the physics of a phase change from snow/ice and rain to deal with. Either way, I went 60F for Saturday on TV, but there is a good chance that we spend most of the day in the 50s. It should be noted that winds will be strong out of the east and southeast over 30 knots.. translating to about 35 mph. That will make for a raw day, but only one day. The wind will be strong on Sunday, but it will clear out.
I know I promised another winter long range outlook. I will get that online later today- so check back then or over the weekend. On a side note, there still is hope for flurries next week close to home.

Snow Storm Out West Will Feed Rain Here Saturday.

That is one impressive looking storm. A bulls eye of sorts in the center of the country, responsible for Winter storm Warnings in western Nebraska and Kansas. However, it is spun out and has run it's course, and warped dry air around the center. A secondary Low will develop at the famed 'triple point' to it's southeast, and that will be our main source of rain this weekend.
That same High Pressure just north of New York State that brought us this cold snap, will park over New England and enhance our wind feeding off the ocean into the storm. We will be on the warm side, so no snow here- yet. Just a good soaking Saturday, but optimism that it will speed through and clear out for a decent Sunday.
The original Low will not disappear complete. As it meanders into Canada, it will help to pull down our coldest shot of the season next week. The pattern is looking interesting early next week, as a coastal Low may really wind up near New England. This would be a stronger version of what happened just a day and a half ago. The result will not only be a continued 'colder than normal' pattern, more showers, but perhaps more widespread snow showers. I know I hit on this yesterday, so I will wait for another model run to lock into it. In my weekend out look on tomorrow's post, I put my confirmation on whether we get some here or not.

Snow North, Foliage From Space

It snowed! It really snowed! Well up north in NY State.... but it did what it was suppose to. Here is the Satellite/Radar image from 5:30 this morning- along with my analysis. Strong wind wrapping into a developing Low Pressure off of the New England Coast and pulled cold air south, and helped produce snow showers off of Lakes Erie and Ontario. As I showed yesterday, the upper level support may carry some of these clouds far enough south to cover northern Maryland, but the flakes will not make it here. The same wind off of the lakes that gets enhanced while moving up higher terrain, dries out moving down the mountains as it heads here. Only under special conditions can we get some of that our way.
It may not be that far off. After this weekend's storm, an impulse of energy combined with a surge of colder air will reach us on Monday. Below you can see the surface and 500mb maps for Monday.
On the Left is the Surface map showing a small but potent Low Pressure developing off of the coast, and the pink shading showing the area where showers are likely. This image also shows the potential freezing line (5400m thickness from 100mb to 500mb) which I highlighted in white. That is far enough south to support at least snow flakes at cloud level.



Here is the upper level 500mb map for the same time frame. This shows a vigorous upper level feature or vort max, which is often what I use to sniff out snow showers days ahead. This is not a big storm, but it is following the track just to our south, that is most promising is you want some flakes. It might be a bit premature to mention this on TV, but I will lean in this direction


This is the latest image from MODIS on NASA's Tera Satellite. It was taken over a week ago on October 12th, but it does show the areas of near and past peak very well. They look reddish/brown and dominate the mountains up to our north.
It will be interesting to see the next image from our region, as well head into peak color in the next week or two. Below is the latest local update from the Foliage Network for the Mid Atlantic and South East.