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Thursday, April 3, 2008

Holy Sleet!

What a surprise, and yes what a miss. I am a little disappointed for not catching this chance of sleet (seen in pink on from the 7pm radar image), as I was hung up on the SE wind and warm air advection. Norm gave me a call around 7pm when he saw it in Towson, but it had not reached my place yet. I have to give Tony Pann credit for writing about it in his blog on WUSA this morning. I called him around 7pm to figure this out, and it boils down to this... The 850mb temperature was still around -1C, while the surface temperature was expected to drop to 41F this evening. Here it is from the AVN model this morning. I was busy with a school group at the station and did not look at it. That plus some evaporative cooling from the initial precipitation all allowed the air to cool down to 38F. That is quite a bit colder than my 47F first pitch forecast for the Os. At least I had rain....and it should get back to 47F by morning, which was in my forecast ranged of 45F-50F. It's like getting on the green after hitting a tree. At least it will get there, even if I'm not proud of how.
This is one of those times that I wish I caught it, but it did not hurt anyone. Just a surprise- and we force me to look extra hard for my next forecast.

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