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Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Less Is More. Temps will Soar!

We never did get the clouds to truly build up yesterday- so with less clouds, we get more on the thermometer. Our normal temps should get up into the mid 60s, and today we begin our return with a shot at 60F. Look at the heat out west. Even for the desert, these were not records. In fact that Phoenix record high was 103F back in 1925- but still quite warm. A sign of some of the heat in the nation. Often when one coast is cold, the other is warm. This is no exception, but as the jet stream lifts- we get some heat to return in a hurry. My forecast from yesterday was perhaps to conservative. In 10 years of forecasting for Maryland- there is one thing that almost always proves true. Warm ups are warmer than expected. As soon as the wind shifts to the west or southwest we get the benefit of downslope warming. Combine that with sunshine, and the forecast models usually can't handle our warming. Here is the GFS Outlook for BWI. I do not like to rely on just one model, but this is used by most forecasters as a benchmark for your typical 7-day forecast. I've highlighted the high temperatures which shoot for 78F for Friday. My 80F is not much higher, and only 2 degrees higher than last Friday's 78F. I will track this for you over the next few days to see if there is a trend up, which may be the case...

GFSX MOS
KBWI GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 4/15/2008 0000 UTC
FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
TUE 15| WED 16| THU 17| FRI 18| SAT 19| SUN 20| MON 21| TUE 22 CLIMO
X/N 60| 27 68| 37 74| 45 78| 50 69| 47 62| 45 66| 49 67 45 68
TMP 52| 38 58| 46 65| 52 68| 55 60| 51 56| 49 59| 54 60
DPT 26| 28 31| 38 42| 44 48| 47 46| 42 40| 41 44| 46 45
CLD CL| CL CL| CL CL| CL CL| PC OV| OV OV| OV OV| PC PC


1 comment:

I am Jen said...

My parents live in the 99 degree region there. That's hot for April.