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Wednesday, April 30, 2008

April Out Like March

What happened to the warm air? A Frost Advisory was issued for the northern and western counties as expected, and we had the temperatures to support that. Was it a record?- Not quite. That was 32F back in 1961. That's not the latest freeze on record. that was May 11, 1966.
It's the radar that surprised me. While High Pressure is usually dry- it is an upper level disturbance feeding off of the cold air and the Great Lakes that produced flurries just to our west this morning.

We do expect a quick rebound into the 60s and 70s over the next few days, but that will come with more clouds and showers. It did not look like much on the maps this morning, but here is the Canadian Model outlook for Saturday Evening. I've highlighted the surface features with a typical spring Low near St. Louis that will provide a severe weather outbreak in the Ohio Valley and down south. Unfortunately this includes the Kentucky. The 134th running of the Kentucky Derby is this Saturday, and that is prime target for stormy weather. These storms often slow down and take their time moving east. So, we may end up with a warm dry day on Saturday, but I had to put in a chance of a thunderstorm since there may be some that fire up ahead of the main system, or reach us in the evening. This is one of those situations when the right forecast may still be wrong, like last weekend. The simple weather graphic has rain, and I even wrote (Afternoon/Evening), but that can get lost in short time I have on the air. This would make 10 out of the last 11 weekends with rain- so I will do my best to pay extra close attention to the timing of the rain until then.

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